Asian PGA

Johnnie Walker Classic

The first event of the 2001 European Tour season is tri-sanctioned between the European Tour, the Asian PGA Tour and the PGA Tour of Australasia. As such there are players starting off their season on the Australasian Tour and players ending their seasons on the other two Tours. With many players relatively unknown outside of their own Tours and the fact that this event is played on a different course each year makes this a rather confusing event. Late withdrawals of Ernie Els and Lee Westwood have not helped either and outside Tiger Woods, Sergio Garcia, the defending champion Michael Campbell and the injured Jesper Parnevik there is little to duplicate the high-class fields of previous years. The previous winners have been Michael Campbell, Tiger Woods, Ernie Els, Ian Woosnam, Fred Couples, Greg Norman, Nick Faldo and Ian Palmer. This may just be the week for a local player to surprise many.

The course is only four years old and there have been no significant tournaments held there so there is some degree of uncertainty associated with picking the winner, but the hole descriptions certainly suggest that accuracy off the tee is of paramount importance. Many of the fairways are intruded by water or bunkers that make the landing area very small. The 13th has, rather poignantly, a series of fairway bunkers called 'Tiger Eyes'! The course is not long at just over 700 yards and the four par-fives are reachable only if the fairway is successively hit. It sounds a good test with a quite dramatic environmental backdrop.

With Tiger Woods, Sergio Garcia and Michael Campbell having competed in Europe last week and Tiger in the US the week before, this may well be a week in which acclimatization (it will be hot & humid) will be too demanding for these players. Tiger should win, but his winless streak is growing and this is no formality. The conditions will also do little to ease the pain in Jesper's hip. 

The best play by far is Alex Cejka @ 66/1. He played in the Star Alliance Open in Hong Kong last week so acclimatization and jet-lag will not be factor; indeed he even finished 3rd in this event. He regularly plays in this part of the world, having finished 6th in the Thailand Open last year and already agreed to play in that event in two weeks time. He didn't play in this event last year, but was 4th behind Tiger two years ago so his credentials for competing in South-East Asia are excellent. He is also one of the most accurate European players from tee to green, so he really should fancy his chances this week.

The 2nd outright play is on Thailand's leading golfer, Prayad Marksaeng, available at a fantastic 125/1 with William Hill. He also played in Hong Kong last week and finished with a disappointing 77 to fall to 12th place. He has been the leading Asian player in this event for the past two seasons, finishing 12th and 8th and has already won on the Asian PGA Tour this year. Not one to be daunted by the specter of Tiger - he outscored him by three shots on the one occasion they played together - he could certainly lead the Asian contingent to a much higher finish than in previous years.

Finally, the Tour-Tips ratings threw up Brett Ogle as the 2nd ranked player. A good example of small sample bias! But he finished the Australasian Tour earlier this year with three consecutive top-20 finishes and has a 2nd place finish in this event to his name. Basically, he showed that when he returned to Tour golf after a two-year layoff that he could be competitive and now that he combines commentating for Fox Sports with Tour golf on the Australasian Tour, there is no reason why he cannot challenge again. If Bobby Clampett could do it at the US Open, why not Brett Ogle at the Johnnie Walker Classic. Definitely more of a speculative play!

Outright plays:

Alex Cejka 66/1 @ Victor Chandler

Prayad Marksaeng 125/1 @ William Hill

Brett Ogle 125/1 @ Surrey

Will have matchups plays available later today.

72-hole plays:

Alex Cejka to beat Ian Poulter -125 @ Sportingbet
Poulter may be the top rookie on the European Tour following his win two weeks ago, but following a decent finish in Valderrama last week with a performance in Thailand this week will be too much; especially against the well-prepared German

Alex Cejka to beat Dean Robertson -111 @ Victor Chandler
Three consecutive weeks in Europe for Robertson, his preparations will also be less than ideal. In terms of accuracy, he does not seem to fit the bill either: this year he has hit 61% of fairways against 69% for Cejka

Sam Torrance to beat Paul Eales -125 @ Easybets
Both these players played in the Hong Kong Open last week and Torrance edged out Eales on that occasion. The straighter-hitting Englishman should have the course edge, but I feel the magnitude of the event will give Torrance a decisive edge in experience

Henrik Stenson to beat Thomas Gogele -118 @ Easybets [3 units]
Stenson won the European Challenge Tour Grand Final convincingly last week to finish #1 in the Challenge Tour rankings and gain his Tour card for the 2001 season. To show that he will not be fazed by his promotion, he played in 4 European Tour events this season and finished in the top-20 in all of them. Both have to travel this week, but Stenson's overflowing confidence will more than compensate

Peter O'Malley to beat Paul Gow -111 @ Centrebet
Looking for O'Malley's experience [12th, 4th and 7th the last three years in this event] and straight-hitting [73% of fairways hit on the European Tour this year] to secure him another top-20 finish which should be sufficient

Greg Turner to beat Richard Green -118 @ Easybets
Three straight weeks on the European Tour for Green; he looks to be overstretching himself this week, while Turner was done nothing but rest of late and wait for the Australasian Tour to begin

Peter Lonard to beat Lucas Parsons -133 @ Centrebet
While Parsons was competing in Valderrama last week, Lonard was resting in the Southern Hemisphere and with Lonard's record in this event - 17th, 12th and 2nd in the last 3 seasons - he should be a heavy favorite anyway

Mid-point update:

No 1st or 2nd round plays - best to be cautious at the start of a tri-Tour event. But very satisfactory state of affairs with the 72-hole plays. They currently stand 5-1-1 with three decided at the cut and all winners Cejka beat Robertson by two, Torrance beat Eales by five and Stenson survived a late double-bogey to beat Gogele by one. In the other plays, Cejka leads Poulter by one, Lonard leads Parsons by three, Turner is tied with Green and O'Malley trails Gow by seven which can be easily overturned over the weekend.

All three outright picks are still in play. Marksaeng is the best placed at 19th and five shots out of a place finish, while Cejka and Ogle went backwards today to both stand three shots further back in 58th place. But as Parnevik and Garcia showed today, low scores and large jumps up the table are possible in the calmer weather of morning tee-times.

Hope to have some 3rd round plays later.

Final update: 4-2-1 and +3.49 units for the week

Not a good weekend   O'Malley did overturn Gow's lead and secure a one-shot victory, but Lonard lost by three to Parsons and Turner lost by ten to Green. In the other match, we were thankful for Sportingbet's push rule on ties as both Cejka and Poulter finished on 287. Profitable week, but was looking much better early on!

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

The highest aggregate odds on the outright plays all season and they played like they should be! Marksaeng may have finished the 2nd highest Asian golfer this year and once again finished in the top-20, but he was 11 shots out of a place finish. Ogle also finished alongside Marksaeng to record another top-20, but similarly never contended for a place finish. Cejka was a huge disappointment finishing four shots further back in 41st place.