Asian PGA

Hong Kong Open

The second of the two co-sanctioned events on the Asian PGA and European Tour schedules, though this is by far the lesser of the two. Total prize money is less than half the amount available for the BMW Asian Open and it means that Thongchai Jaidee's 2nd place finish last week was extremely important in propelling to the top of the Asian PGA Tour Order of Merit. It could have been very different had Charlie Wi not lost his ball on the 14th hole last Sunday; now he needs to finish in the top-5 to have any chance of overhauling Jaidee.

This is the first time that this event has been co-sanctioned in its 42-year history, but it has attracted many Europeans in the past. Patrik Sjoland won this title in 1999 from Ian Woosnam and finished 5th last year; Paul Lawrie finished in the top-10 last year; and of this week's prime contenders, Jose Maria Olazabal was present in 1998. The course itself is very short at just 6,700 yards with no par-3 over 200 yards and the longest of the three par-fives only 529 yards. It is tree-lined, but the course compatibility stats suggest that good putting in the likely birdie-fest will be of primary importance.

The three selections are Adam Scott, Steve Webster and Thongchai Jaidee. Scott's knee appears to be of little concern at the moment as he continued his impressive form from the Volvo Masters through the EMC World Cup to a decent finish in the Australian Open in which he recovered well from a poor 1st round. He has not played at the Hong Kong Golf Club, but he grew on courses designed by Thomson and Wolveridge, so he should feel at home this week. With both power and accuracy in his game - he ranked in the top-10 on the European Tour in both driving distance and greens in regulation - he should make this course look very easy.

Webster is a similar type of player. He ranked in the top-15 in both driving distance and greens in regulation on the European Tour and showed in the Open de Madrid when losing in a playoff to Retief Goosen that he can shoot very low scores on easy courses. He has since followed that event with three further top-20 finishes including 14th last week in the BMW Asian Open. With a weaker field on view this week, he should be able to improve on that finish significantly.

The final pick has at least played the course. He finished 21st though that was largely the result of a poor 3rd round - he had been 3rd heading into the weekend. It is a little unusual to back the leader of an Order of Merit race as the pressure of defending a position normally leads to a poor performance, but Retief Goosen was in the same position when he started the Open de Madrid and he proved how consistent he has become. That is also a hallmark of Jaidee's season. Charlie Wi may have won more titles, but Jaidee has finished no worse than 8th in his last six events, with five of those finishes being in the top-5. The 40/1 from Bet365 has gone, but he would still be a very profitable play if he secured yet another top-5 finish this week.

Outright plays:

Adam Scott to win 14/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler

Steve Webster to win 25/1 e.w. @ Surrey or Bet365

Thongchai Jaidee to win 33/1 e.w. @ BetInternet, Sportingbet or Bet365 

72-hole plays:

Stephen Dodd to beat Kim Felton -110 @ Bet365 [3 units]
Discounting Felton's runners-up position last year as a fluke. He had missed 9 of his previous 10 cuts, but that does epitomize Felton's game up to that point. In the two years up to last year's Hong Kong Open, he played 35 times, finishing in the top-4 a very creditable 6 times (without winning), but missing the cut 19 times. Since then he has failed to achieve another top-5 and is opposed who has come into form in the past few months and finished 8th last week

Anthony Wall to beat Simon Dyson -125 @ Easybets
Also opposing last year's winner! Dyson this event last year to clinch the Order of Merit title, but did so on a wave of great form - he had finished in the top-3 in three of his previous starts, and was 10th in the other one. This year he has focused on the European Tour and while he has retained his Tour card, he has secured only one top-10 finish. He has admitted that he is struggling with his game, particularly his putting and should be beaten by Wall who played on this course in 1998 and will have recovered from the jet-lag that affected his game last week

Carl Pettersson to beat Gregory Havret +100 @ Camelot
It was quite a shock to see Havret win the Italian Open and secure his Tour Card at the start of this month. Having spent such a long time as a journeyman pro, playing in these events to earn vital money for the Volvo Order of Merit, this should be a strange experience. He should make the cut, but it is hard to see him winning again - that was a career week. Much better things are expected from the young Petterson who won the European Amateur Championship and had a distinguished career during his time at North Carolina State University. His 4th place finish last week was his 3rd top-5 finish in 27 pro starts and he looks one for the future

Paul McGinley to beat Thomas Levet -130 @ Camelot [2 units]
Both should be tired after having played in the three weeks across different continents. But McGinley's mid-table finish last week looked to be indicative of a breather week. It was the first time that he had finished outside the top-10 since the NEC Invitational in August. He is by far the better player and in much the better form.

Mid-point update:

Decent position at the cut, but everything still to lose as none of the plays were decided at the cut. Dodd leads Felton by one, Wall trails Dyson by two, Pettersson leads Havret by seven and McGinley leads Levet by six. Only one chance in the outrights though. Scott led after 18 holes, but is still nicely placed in 3rd, two shots behind Yeh Wei-Tze. Jaidee is six shots further back in 37th, while Webster withdraw after a poor opening round.

Final update: 2-2-0 and +0.15 units

No more than a break-even week after an encouraging first 36 holes. Dodd beat Felton by two shots int the top play, but Wall lost to Dyson by nine and McGinley lost to Levet by three after an eight-shot swing in the 3rd round. In the other match, Pettersson beat Havret by nine shots. He is definitely one for the future - he secured his 2nd consecutive top-5 finish this week.

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and -0.75 units

On any other week, Olazabal would be a popular winner, but not this one. Scott led for most of the final round only to be overtaken by Olly at the death with three birdies to close. Scott failed to birdie any of the last six holes and again bogeyed the last. It is not his first final round wobble. He finished 3rd, two shots behind Olly. Jaidee was again impressive, but only good enough for 13th.