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BMW Asian Open
Outright plays (1 unit):
Trevor Immelman to win 25/1 e.w. @ Totalbet
Obviously not putting a lot of emphasis on course form as two of this week's
selections have never played the course before and the other has poor course
form! Instead, Immelman comes into this event in excellent form having been in
contention in most of the events that he has played since August and should have
benefited from a week's rest. His tired performance at Valderrama was his worst
for three months. The European Tour contingent dominated this event twelve
months ago (bar Thongchai Jaidee) and if the same is to happen again, Immelman
should fancy his chances this week.
Maarten Lafeber to win 33/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power, BlueSq
and Heathorns
Another selection who will be seeking their maiden Tour victory this week -
though both Immelman and Lafeber have won the Challenge Tour's Tusker Kenya Open
- so this reflects the real depth in the European Tour contingent this week. But
like Immelman, he has done everything but win at the close of the 2002 European
Tour season. In the last month he has been the leader of the Trophee Lancome
with one round to go and the leader of the Open de Madrid with two rounds to go.
He had been in the top-10 after two rounds of his last two events and while he
finished in the top-15 in all four events, they were disappointing weekends.
Returning to a course he played last year and in 1999 when in poor form, the
hope is that he will have learnt from his experience and drawn confidence from
his continued ability to put himself on the leaderboard. If not, the hope is
that the weekend gets washed out!
Ian Woosnam to win 40/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds and
Sportingbet
A large price when 20/1 is widely available, but it does take into account the
fact that he played in the UBS Warburg Cup in Georgia last week. Even still, in
this field and with a good record in Asia, Woosie looks good value at this
price. Since he finished 3rd in the German Masters, he has secured top-15
finishes in the Trophee Lancome and the Volvo Masters. He does not have the
punishing schedule of other Tour players and provided he can cope with the
jetlag and the near loss of a day as he travelled from Georgia to Taiwan, he
should perform much better than the price predicts.
Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):
Soren Kjeldsen to beat Fredrik Andersson -118 @ Expekt
With a top-10 finish in his last tournament - the Madrid Open - Kjeldsen is in
far better form than Andersson who has missed three of his last cuts. Similar
story with course form. Kjeldsen has played here twice, finishing 15th last
year, while this will be the first time for Andersson.
Maarten Lafeber to beat Andrew Coltart -110 @ BlueSq
Opposing Coltart who has never played this course before and, despite his top-10
finish last week, will surely be tired. This will be his fifth consecutive week
of golf across two continents in very different time zones. Last week was the
first time in three weeks that he had broken par in any round, so I will easily
side with the fresher outright selection.
Ian Woosnam to beat Andrew Coltart -118 @ Expekt
Same goes for another outright selection.
Ian Woosnam to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez -110 @ BetInternet
Jimenez may have finished 6th last year, but that was the year that he finished
3rd in the British Open and he had just completed a run of top-30 finishes on
the European Tour before competing at Ta Shee. This year has been a struggle for
the Spaniard, particularly on the PGA Tour, and having opened with a 81 in the
Volvo Masters two weeks ago, he looks in no form to repeat last year's feat.
Woosie should have to finish no more than mid-table to win this one.
Soren Hansen to beat Fredrik Jacobson -110 @ BetInternet and SkyBet
[2 units]
Both have comparable form in the last few months, but the decider here is that
Jacobson has never played in a Asian PGA Tour event, let alone have the course
form of his opponent. He should find it difficult to adjust to the climactic
changes at the very least and a top-20 finish from Hansen should be sufficient.
Padraig Harrington to beat Thongchai Jaidee -150 @ Victor
Chandler [3 units]
The odds may be short, but there is no comparison between Harrington and Jaidee,
even when the event is in Asia and Harrington is tired. He did at least only
compete in the Tiger Skins in Singapore last week, so he will have become
adjusted to the climate change and the jetlag and it would not have been a
particularly tiring event. However, he did second behind Goosen and that must
have rankled. Expecting a strong performance from the Irishman as he bids for
the 2003 Order of Merit title. For Jaidee, last week's 2nd place finish was his
first top-10 finish since February, so he hardly looks in the best form to
repeat last year's fine performance when he approached the event on the back of
four top-5 finishes (plus one top-10 finish) in his previous five events.
Final update:
Matchups: 6-0-0; +9.00 units
Kjeldsen/Andersson WON by 7 (at the cut)
Lafeber/Coltart WON by 8
Woosnam/Coltart WON by 6
Woosnam/Jimenez WON by 9
Hansen/Jacobson WON by 15
Harrington/Jaidee WON by 4
Outrights: 2-1; +5.25 units
Immelman 3rd
Lafeber 3rd
Woosnam 7th
Almost the perfect event. Healthy wins in all the matchups and at the end of
the 3rd round, the outright selections were in 1st, 2nd and 5th places. Could
the trifecta be achieved? Not with Lafeber in the lead and as expected, he
failed. Immelman virtually took himself out of the running with an early
double-bogey and the perfect event remains elusive.
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