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Caltex Masters Outright plays (0.5 units):
Maarten Lafeber to finish in the top-five 13/2 @ Five
Dimes
Conservative plays on three players who do not win regularly and are facing the
most in-form player in world golf at the moment. Lafeber consistently put
himself in contention at the end of last year and consistently faded over the
weekend. He did achieve top-25 finishes in each of his last eight events of
2002, so if he can repeat that form he should contend against a weak field bar
Els. He has a good record in the region and has finished 3rd and 30th in this
event in the last two years. Richard Green to finish in the top-five 12/1
@ Five
Dimes
Definitely mis-priced as he is at most 40/1 to win elsewhere. He has won once on
the European Tour, but that was six years ago, and he can count two runners-up
finishes in this country (1993 Singapore Open and last year's event on this
course). He secured a top-5 finish in his last start of 2002, the MasterCard
Masters, and looks very capable of repeating the feat this week. Stephen
Dodd to finish in the top-five 12/1 @ Five
Dimes
Has shown good form in his two starts of 2003 to finish 8th and 17th in the
South African events and this follows a 4th place finish in the Hong Kong Open
at the end of 2002. He also has decent form in Singapore with finishes of 13th
and 26th in the last two years and should play well again. The 80/1 each-way at
BetInternet is tempting, but he can only lay claim to a single European
Challenge Tour win and that was back in 1992.
 Matchup plays (0.75 units):
Kevin Na to beat Arjun Atwal -111 @ Paddy Power
Almost sided with Na for the outrights @ 80/1 after he was a winning selection
in the Volvo Masters of Asia last month, but he features heavily in the matchups
instead. Atwal may be defending champion, but he has never won such a big title
as this and should find the pressure a little difficult to bear. Against the
very consistent Na, Atwal is quite the opposite, missing the cut in five of his
last eight events. In Na's last eight events, his worst finish has been 49th, he
has won once and finished in the top-10 on three other occasions. Kevin Na
to beat Markus Brier -138 @ Bet365
Brier made the cut in both South African events, though finishing outside the
top-40, but will surely struggle this week. He has never played in this part of
the world before this week and that means a large home advantage for the young
Na. Kevin Na to beat Per Nyman -111 @ BetandWin
Similar story with Nyman who lost his Tour Card in 2000 and had to come through
Q-School to regain it this year. Two top-20 finishes in South Africa show good
form, but he has once appearance in this region and that was the 1999 Johnnie
Walker Classic. He shot 81-70 to miss the cut in Taiwan. Tired from playing two
weeks in a row in a different continent and with no supporting region form,
Butch Harmon's pupil should have the upper hand. Stephen Dodd to beat Per
Nyman -125 @ Bet365
Dodd also played both weeks in South Africa and so may be a little drained from
the travel, but he does have form in this event and on this course. It should be
an important edge. Soren Kjeldsen to beat Nick Dougherty -111 @ Paddy Power
Dougherty has suffered a worrying loss of form in the last couple of months and
having had no winter break to work on his game with his coach, it is hard to see
him turn this around. Since the Dunhill Links Championship in October he has
played four events in Europe, three events in Australia and two in South Africa
with four missed cuts and a best finish of 28th. He missed the cut last year to
finish behind Kjeldsen who should be fresh and looking to build on his 4th place
finish in the Hong Kong Open. Gary Evans to beat Gary Murphy -120 @ Bet365
Murphy came through Q-School to earn his card and he put it to good use with two
top-15 finishes in South Africa. The long flight and the total lack of
experience of playing in this region should make that form very difficult to
repeat this week. Evans did miss the cut last year, but this is the start of his
2003 campaign and after an exciting 2002 season, he will be fully prepared for
this event. Lian-Wei Zhang to beat Gary Murphy -118 @ Expekt
Zhang is a very consistent player who performed well on the Japan Tour last year
with a number of top-10 finishes and has won the Macau Open in each of the last
two years. Unlike Murphy, he does have course form and will be much
better-prepared for this event.
Mid-point update: Na/Atwal Trails by 5
Na/Brier Trails by 2
Na/Nyman Leads by 2
Dodd/Nyman Leads by 3
Kjeldsen/Dougherty Trails by 2
Evans/Murphy Trails by 6
Zhang/Murphy Trails by 1 Lafeber 28th
Green 52nd
Dodd 19th Not a great position at the cut, but at least every play is still
alive and on this congested leaderboard, there could be a lot of changes over
the weekend. Green is only six shots outside a top-5 finish, so much can happen
yet.
Final update: Matchups: 1-6-0; -4.62 units Na/Atwal LOST by 8
Na/Brier LOST by 8
Na/Nyman LOST by 10
Dodd/Nyman LOST by 7
Kjeldsen/Dougherty LOST by 4
Evans/Murphy LOST by 9
Zhang/Murphy WON by 12 Outrights: 1-2; +2.25 units Lafeber 4th
Green 45th
Dodd 38th I would have preferred every matchup play to be dead at the cut, so
at least I would have won two of them. But at least these were only half-unit
plays and Lafeber did secure the top-5 finish to get the best return from the
outrights strategy this week. Along with Zhang who was handed victory by Els,
they were the only two of the eight different selections who performed anywhere
near expected.
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