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Malaysian Open Outright plays (0.5 units):
Ian Woosnam to win 40/1 e.w. @ Easybets
Opposed him last week, unfortunately, on his 2003 debut, but he did play well
for two rounds and then in the last five holes of his last round. He should be
upbeat after finishing the event so well and returns to Malaysia where he has
played well in the past. Last year he finished 6th around Royal Selangor, having
finished 11th on that course on his previous visit. In an open event bar the two
headline players, this looks a bog price when he is generally 25/1 elsewhere.
Ignacio Garrido to finish in the top-five 16/1 @ Five
Dimes
The 'money back if he misses the cut' offer at Paddy Power was tempting for the
next two selections, but I can't see either of them winning and so will opt for
the place-only option instead. Garrido has been quietly rebuilding his game,
missing only one of his last twelve cuts and finishing 11th in the Johnnie
Walker Classic last week with every round under 70. This week's field is very
much weaker and he does have a very good history in this event. In 2001 he
finished 18th and last year he finished 4th having never been lower than that
position at the end of any round. Still some way short of the form that earned
him a central role in the 1997 Ryder Cup, but he has a definite chance of a
top-5 finish. Fran Quinn to finish in the top-five 33/1 @ SkyBet
Huge price for a player currently in the top-10 of the 2003 Asian PGA Tour Order
of Merit and who finished 9th in the co-sanctioned Singapore Masters last month.
He was a regular on this Tour from 1996 to 1999 securing back-to-back wins in
1999 before concentrating on the Nationwide (then Nike) Tour where he was a
winner in 2000 (Dakota Dunes Open). He failed to secure his PGA Tour card at
Q-School (he finished 82nd) and so will concentrating on this Tour and the
Nationwide Tour again. This is much too big a price (Five Dimes have higher
outright odds for him than Skybet, but only offer 24/1 for a top-five place) for
someone who has been successful in this region.
 Matchup plays (0.5 units
unless stated): Ignacio Garrido to beat Charl Schwartzel -118 @ Expekt [1 unit]
Looking to oppose Schwartzel to continues to thrive off the exposure from his
3rd place finish in the South African Open. Apart from winning the 2002 English
Amateur Strokeplay Championship, there was little evidence that he travelled
particularly well as an amateur and in his first start overseas as a
professional he missed the cut in the ANZ Championship. Acclimatisation to
Malaysian conditions will be a big factor this week and he looks opposable
again, particularly with an outright selection who has a good record in this
coutry. Paul McGinley to beat Charl Schwartzel -128 @ Centrebet
McGinley is another with a good record in Malaysia - he finished 14th in the
individual event in the World Cup on this course in 1999 and finished no worse
than 21st from 1997 to 1999 in this event at Saujana. Coming off a top-20 finish
last week, he looks set to repeat it this week. Simon Yates to beat Charl
Schwartzel -138 @ Five
Dimes
Yates is a regular on this Tour with a good history of success and finished in
the top-10 in the co-sanctioned Singapore Masters last month and in the top-20
in the Johnnie Walker Classic. Having also played on this course in the 1998
Kuala Lumpur Open, he has a definite edge over Schwartzel. Stephen Dodd to
beat Terry Price -111 @ Paddy Power
Did consider Dodd for the outright markets at the price of 100/1 with Sean
Graham, but his history in Malaysia was not supportive. However with excellent
form in the co-sanctioned events over the last three months, including 4th in
the Hong Kong Open, he should record his best finish in this event. It should be
enough to beat Price who has played well in the last two events in Australia,
but has a long history of struggling on his travels - on the European, Japan,
Asian PGA and Nationwide Tours - other than a full decade ago. He played in the
co-sanctioned Singapore Masters last month and missed the cut, shooting 73-82,
and did try to gain his Card for the Asian PGA Tour two years ago, but failed at
the Q-School in Malaysia. Wouldn't oppose him in Australia at the moment, but
elsewhere is a different proposition. Charlie Wi to beat Terry Price -110
@ BetInternet [1 unit]
His form dipped last year as he travelled far more than in previous years having
gained a European Tour card, but Wi displayed with his top-25 finish in the
Johnnie Walker Classic last week that he is still a formidable player. He is a
former winner of the Kuala Lumpur Open (1997) in this country and looks set
challenge for the Asian PGA Order of Merit which he came so close to winning in
2001. Prayad Marksaeng to beat Edward Fryatt -118 @ Easybets
Backing Malaysia's most famous player who finished 6th in this event last year
and was 3rd in the co-sanctioned Singapore Masters last month against a player
who has won this event (1998) and has a good record in this country, but has not
played there since 1999 and has since struggled to make any cuts on the PGA
Tour. His confidence must be at an all-time low. Rick Gibson to beat
Richard Sterne -133 @
Five Dimes
Again siding with local knowledge against none. Gibson is a former winner of
this event (1991) and finished no lower than 11th in the three co-sanctioned
events in the last three months. Very consistent and with good local knowledge,
he has a large edge over Sterne who has never played on this Tour, let alone
Malaysia. Soren Kjeldsen to beat Steve Webster -125 @ Easybets
Very consistent player against a very inconsistent one. Kjeldsen has made his
last nine cuts with two top-5 finishes, including the Hong Kong Open, and did
play in the 1999 World Cup on this course, finishing 16th in the individual
event. Webster misses far too many cuts and in his three events in this region,
he has missed the cut twice. He has never played on this course or in Malaysia
until this week.
Have just realised that although the Kjeldsen/Webster
play at Easybets is with Steve Webster, he is not playing. It will either be
voided or graded with Shaun Webster as the player.
Mid-point update:
Garrido/Schwartzel LOST by 4
McGinley/Schwartzel Leads by 4
Yates/Schwartzel Leads by 3
Dodd/Price LOST by 4
Wi/Price Leads by 1
Marksaeng/Fryatt WON by 11
Gibson/Sterne WON (Sterne withdrew during 1st round) Woosnam 34th
Garrido mc
Quinn mc Not pretty and can hope for a break-even event at best as Woosie is
quite some distance from the leaders. Garrido's run of triple-bogey,
double-bogey, double-bogey on the 16th, 17th and 18th holes on Thursday proved
to be costly. Will need Wi to hold on to his narrow lead over Schwartzel in the
other double-play is this event is not to prove costly as a whole.
Final
update: Matchups: 3-4-0; -2.03 units McGinley/Schwartzel WON by 3
Yates/Scwartzel LOST by 2
Wi/Price LOST by 6 Outrights: 0-3; -1.50 units Woosnam 50th Looked like
being a break-even event before the weekend ... not so at the end of it! Just as
well they were only half-unit plays.
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