Spread Picks - Asian PGA Tour
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Tipster:
Andy
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Bets 13, Wins 7, Losses 6. Loss 5.75 Pts. The losses were
basically a bit bigger than the wins. Round Four
matches (Poor end to the week and a 6.25 pt loss over the 7 trades.) Sell Thongchai Jaidee over K-C Lin 18H match at 8 with
Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U -13, Profit 5.25 Pts
Sell Andrew Butterfield over Edward Loar 18H match at 1 with
Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U -22, Profit 5.75 Pts
Sell Nick Dougherty over Scott Strange 18H match at 6 with
IG
Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U 13, Loss 1.75 Pts
Sell Anders Hansen over Gregory Havret 18H match at 1 with
Spreadex for 0.25 Pts M/U 0, Profit 0.25 Pts
Buy Phil Golding over Marc Cayeux 18H match at 0 with
Spreadex for 0.25 Pts (Spread free) M/U -16, Loss 4 Pts
Sell Thammanoon Srirot over Jeev M Singh 18H match at 0 with
Spreadex for 0.25 Pts M/U 25, Loss 6.25 Pts
Sell James Kingston over Simon Yates 18H match at 0 with
Spreadex for 0.25 Pts M/U 22, Loss 5.5 Pts
Going out with a bang on 7 matchups. The six sells all are value as
in my opinion the favourites are priced too high. The buy of Golding is
good value using the spread free offer to get it down to a non
handicapped price. Round Three
matches (In slight profit for the week so far after the Saturday
results went our way. The leaders were a toss of the coin job in the end
and KC performed to the level he seems to when he sniffs a financial
return for his efforts) Sell Thaworn Wiratchant over K-C Lin 18H match at 6 with
Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U -19, Profit 6.25 Pts
Keng-Chi Lin has a strange quirk in his
scoring. In 2005, when he has started with a score under 70, he has went
on to keep up the form over the four days with his worst finish 41st.
This has happened in 12 events this year so it shows he takes the
opportunities that are presented to him when he starts well. This week a
68/69 start sees him comfortably inside the Top 20 and hopeful of
another good return. He comes up against a leading player on this tour
in Wiratchant who is a justified favourite here but maybe not by as much
as the 6pts offered by Sporting Index.
Sell Rick Gibson over Edward Loar 18H match at 2 with
Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U 0, Profit 0.5 Pts
With course form and "contention" form (coping well under the
pressure of leading tournaments) very similar I can only assume sporting
deem Gibson a 2 point favourite on the fact his current form is better
than Loar's. You could argue though that with Loar going out in the last
match tonight his immediate form negates a couple of poor results over
the last two weeks. This is a toss of the coin match and therefore
worthy of getting with any player getting 2pts. i would happily support
Gibson if he was getting the 2pts. Round Two
matches (Chopra lets us down badly as we sit down by a few points
even although we have a 50% strike rate over the 4 trades so far) Sell Paul Casey over Daniel Chopra 18H match at 5 with
Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U 31, Loss 6.5 Pts
No reason not to play this match again, the price stays the same and
the reasoning for the bet before R1 still applies.
Sell Jose Manuel Lara over W. C. Liang 18H match at 1.8 with
Cantor Spreadfair for 0.25 Pts M/U -13, Profit 3.5 Pts
Lara shot 5 shots lower than the Chinese player yesterday but is now
being priced just a bit too high considering their differing results
long term on this tour. Lara has one Top 25 in eleven attempts on this
tour with one of his worst a 66th on this course. Liang, meanwhile, has
been off the boil in recent weeks with a MC in China and a 49th in the
reduced field HSBC event. Previously, though, he has 6 top 20's in the
last year including at this venue. Even allowing for current form and
the R1 result Lara shouldn't be favourite and certainly not by nearly 2
points. Round One
matches (Looks like we picked the wrong match-ups involving Casey
and Dougherty with them losing to Bjorn and Lane by 4 and 3
respectively.) Hopefully some prices will appeal for R2 to help us get
this loss back. Sell Paul Casey over Daniel Chopra 18H match at 5 with
IG Sport for 0.25
Pts M/U 0, Profit 1.25 Pts
Chopra played this tour regularly from 01' to 03' and posted a fair
amount of high finishes. Obviously Casey is the overwhelming favourite
being last weeks winner and of course a far better player but sometimes
the price can just be a little too high and in this case I think it is.
Chopra has a good run of form behind him after a poor August/September
with three top 25's on the PGA Tour and a 23rd in Australia last week.
He has 5 Top 10's on this tour in the period he played a couple of years
back so is familiar and confident with the conditions. Sell Nick
Dougherty over L. W. Zhang 18H match at 2 with
IG Sport for 0.25
Pts M/U 19, Loss 4.25 Pts
Strange price here. Dougherty has a win and a 3rd on this tour but
apart from that he hasn't beaten 35th in nine other attempts. Zhang has
been one of the top players on this tour now for many years and his form
currently is 8/3/25/28/7 in his last 5 events, the 7th beating
Dougherty's 50th by some way. On any other tour, yes, Dougherty should
be clear favourite but not in Hong Kong. On course form, Zhang's 8th
beats Dougherty's 35th from last years' event. All in all, this is a
fair trade with a 2 pt. start.
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