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Spread Picks - Asian PGA Tour

Tipster: Andy

Odds: Spreads

Hong Kong Open

Spread Betting News (Sporting Index)

Bets 13, Wins 7, Losses 6. Loss 5.75 Pts. The losses were basically a bit bigger than the wins.

Round Four matches (Poor end to the week and a 6.25 pt loss over the 7 trades.)

Sell Thongchai Jaidee over K-C Lin 18H match at 8 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U -13, Profit 5.25 Pts
Sell Andrew Butterfield over Edward Loar 18H match at 1 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U -22, Profit 5.75 Pts
Sell Nick Dougherty over Scott Strange 18H match at 6 with IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U 13, Loss 1.75 Pts
Sell Anders Hansen over Gregory Havret 18H match at 1 with Spreadex for 0.25 Pts M/U 0, Profit 0.25 Pts
Buy Phil Golding over Marc Cayeux 18H match at 0 with Spreadex for 0.25 Pts (Spread free) M/U -16, Loss 4 Pts
Sell Thammanoon Srirot over Jeev M Singh 18H match at 0 with Spreadex for 0.25 Pts M/U 25, Loss 6.25 Pts
Sell James Kingston over Simon Yates 18H match at 0 with Spreadex for 0.25 Pts M/U 22, Loss 5.5 Pts
Going out with a bang on 7 matchups. The six sells all are value as in my opinion the favourites are priced too high. The buy of Golding is good value using the spread free offer to get it down to a non handicapped price.

Round Three matches (In slight profit for the week so far after the Saturday results went our way. The leaders were a toss of the coin job in the end and KC performed to the level he seems to when he sniffs a financial return for his efforts)

Sell Thaworn Wiratchant over K-C Lin 18H match at 6 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U -19, Profit 6.25 Pts
Keng-Chi Lin has a strange quirk in his scoring. In 2005, when he has started with a score under 70, he has went on to keep up the form over the four days with his worst finish 41st. This has happened in 12 events this year so it shows he takes the opportunities that are presented to him when he starts well. This week a 68/69 start sees him comfortably inside the Top 20 and hopeful of another good return. He comes up against a leading player on this tour in Wiratchant who is a justified favourite here but maybe not by as much as the 6pts offered by Sporting Index.

Sell Rick Gibson over Edward Loar 18H match at 2 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U 0, Profit 0.5 Pts
With course form and "contention" form (coping well under the pressure of leading tournaments) very similar I can only assume sporting deem Gibson a 2 point favourite on the fact his current form is better than Loar's. You could argue though that with Loar going out in the last match tonight his immediate form negates a couple of poor results over the last two weeks. This is a toss of the coin match and therefore worthy of getting with any player getting 2pts. i would happily support Gibson if he was getting the 2pts.

Round Two matches (Chopra lets us down badly as we sit down by a few points even although we have a 50% strike rate over the 4 trades so far)

Sell Paul Casey over Daniel Chopra 18H match at 5 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U 31, Loss 6.5 Pts
No reason not to play this match again, the price stays the same and the reasoning for the bet before R1 still applies.

Sell Jose Manuel Lara over W. C. Liang 18H match at 1.8 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.25 Pts M/U -13, Profit 3.5 Pts
Lara shot 5 shots lower than the Chinese player yesterday but is now being priced just a bit too high considering their differing results long term on this tour. Lara has one Top 25 in eleven attempts on this tour with one of his worst a 66th on this course. Liang, meanwhile, has been off the boil in recent weeks with a MC in China and a 49th in the reduced field HSBC event. Previously, though, he has 6 top 20's in the last year including at this venue. Even allowing for current form and the R1 result Lara shouldn't be favourite and certainly not by nearly 2 points.

Round One matches (Looks like we picked the wrong match-ups involving Casey and Dougherty with them losing to Bjorn and Lane by 4 and 3 respectively.) Hopefully some prices will appeal for R2 to help us get this loss back.

Sell Paul Casey over Daniel Chopra 18H match at 5 with IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U 0, Profit 1.25 Pts
Chopra played this tour regularly from 01' to 03' and posted a fair amount of high finishes. Obviously Casey is the overwhelming favourite being last weeks winner and of course a far better player but sometimes the price can just be a little too high and in this case I think it is. Chopra has a good run of form behind him after a poor August/September with three top 25's on the PGA Tour and a 23rd in Australia last week. He has 5 Top 10's on this tour in the period he played a couple of years back so is familiar and confident with the conditions.

Sell Nick Dougherty over L. W. Zhang 18H match at 2 with IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U 19, Loss 4.25 Pts
Strange price here. Dougherty has a win and a 3rd on this tour but apart from that he hasn't beaten 35th in nine other attempts. Zhang has been one of the top players on this tour now for many years and his form currently is 8/3/25/28/7 in his last 5 events, the 7th beating Dougherty's 50th by some way. On any other tour, yes, Dougherty should be clear favourite but not in Hong Kong. On course form, Zhang's 8th beats Dougherty's 35th from last years' event. All in all, this is a fair trade with a 2 pt. start.