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Summary: 4 Bets, 1 Win, 3 Losses. Loss 12.93 Pts Bet 1 - Sell Nick Dougherty over Darren Clarke 72H MB at -0.55 with Sporting Index / Bet HiLo for 0.6 Pts M/U 10, Loss 6.33 Pts Clarke leads Dougherty 6-4 in H2H's over all tours in the last year, and on current form, Dougherty's 81 in last weeks event must be of some concern to his backers. Dougherty is of course favourite due to course form of 2-1 but in two previous course starts he has missed one cut and placed 52nd the other start. Clarke hasn't played here and hasn't played much in the region in recent years but then personal issues have kept him much closer to home. He does have a very good record in the region in the late 90's though and of course is a better player than Dougherty overall. Note: this bet is on the "Matchmakers" option. Bet 2 - Sell Chapchai Nirat over Gary Orr 18H MB at -1.5 with Spreadex for 0.3 Pts M/U -22, Profit 6.15 Pts Orr finished 42nd last week in Thailand which was 2 days more golf that Nirat achieved, so it is surprising to see most firms struggling to split these two players. Orr is a far better player than Nirat, he has a lower scoring average, his record on this tour is ok with two Top 10's in his two previous starts before last week, so this price must be based on Tour familiarity. Nirat has a strange set of results here where it seems he achieves a high placing or fails miserably. In 25 starts over the last year he has 7 top 10's but bar an 18th and 26th place in two other events, his best finish in the other 17 events is 37th. Bet 3 - Sell Mardan Mamat over Marc Warren 18H MB at -1.5 with Spreadex for 0.3 Pts M/U 25, Loss 7.95 Pts Taking another Scot to win his 2 ball against an Asian tour player. Mamat came to prominence in 2006 winning this event. Since that win he has had 24 starts, missing 16 cuts and bar a 3rd place finish in Bangkok and a 12th in the Singapore Open he has failed in the other 8 starts to better 23rd place. Of course, the common denominator here is his Singapore form, with a win and a 12th, but there are too many other negatives to suggest he should be equal with Warren, who, after 3 missed cuts on the "Desert swing" finished 14th last week in Thailand. Bet 4 - Sell Phillip Price over Paul Lawrie 18H MB at 0 with Sporting Index / Bet HiLo for 0.3 Pts M/U 16, Loss 4.8 Pts A 13-4 lead in H2H's over 12 months and a slightly better score last week, even although both players missed the cut confirms my view that Lawrie should be favourite. Tour form sees Lawrie post 8th, 10th and 11th in the 3 starts before last week which is superior to Price's 56/cut/24 record in his three starts before Thailand.
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