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18-Hole Match Picks - Asian PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

 

 

Odds: 3-Balls

Asia Pacific Classic

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2-1; +4.20pts  (system plays: 11-15-2) 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Luke Donald to beat Seung-Yul Noh -138 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  WON by 4
A mismatch if this match were played in Europe or the United States. Noh ranks 70th in the World Rankings, whereas Donald is 8th and has the 3rd best number of points earned in the World Rankings in 2010. Noh has three top-10 in his last four starts across three different Tours, but this still pales in comparison to Donald's performances on the PGA and European Tour recently. The only question relates to Donald's ability to compete in the 100% humidity of Kuala Lumpur - he may not have played in Asia since November 2006, but in his three previous starts in this continent (all previously in China), he has finished 9th, 6th and 14th. He should not be too disadvantaged by the climatic conditions.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Allenby tb Atwal -120 (L); Moore tb Palmer -110 (W); Choi tb Noh -110 (W)]

 

Round 2 play (4pts):

D.J. Trahan to beat Ricky Barnes +105 @ Stan James  WON by 2
Three top-10 finishes in his last eights starts (and just one missed cut) is an indicator that Trahan is more likely to retain his current top-10 finish than Barnes whose hasn't achieved one since June. But being the sole leader adds additional pressure to a player and it is not one that Barnes has a particularly good history with. He has never previously led a Tour event after the first round, but in the three occasions that he has led after two rounds and in the two occasions that he has led after three rounds, he never went on to win the event so I can't a wire-to-wire effort this week.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Wi tb Jaidee -104 (L); Wi tb Barnes -110 (L); Wiratchant tb Hussin -140 (W); Moore tb Barnes -122 (W); Allenby tb Yang -125 (W); Haas tb Noh -125 (T); Haas tb Palmer -118 (W); Senden tb Noh +100 (L); Wi tb Laird +110 (L)]

 

Round 3 play (2pts):

Bill Haas to beat Seung-Yul Noh +105 @ SkyBet [available generally]  LOST by 4
Opposing Noh again. If the home Tour players were to have any advantage over the PGA Tour players, it should have been greatest at the start of the weekend rather than towards the end once the event gets into full flow and the players become more acclimatised. As such, an in-form player such as Haas, who has finished 1st and 2nd in his last two events, should get better as the week progresses. He followed an opening 72 with a 69 in the second round and a similar progression in round three is expected.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Slocum tb Laird -105 (L); Jaidee tb Laird -105 (L); Wi tb Jaidee -105 (W); Moore tb Crane -125 (L); Allenby tb Laird -120 (L); Clark tb Allenby +115 (L)]

 

Round 4 play (2pts):

Ryan Moore to beat Ben Crane -138 @ SkyBet  TIED
Crane has perfect record - 3-for-3 - when leading an event into the final round, but two of those wins on the Nationwide Tour were in 2000 and 2001 and the sole win on the PGA Tour was in July 2005. It has been five months since he even had a top-10 finish so, as well as he has played this week, he should struggle to continue his perfect conversion record. As for Moore, he is certainly a good player to back when in final round contention. He has started the final round in the top-5 (apart from leading) eight times in the last five years on the PGA Tour and averages less than 69 in the final round with a worst finish of 8th. That's very consistent and he should be able to put some pressure on the leader tonight.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Els tb Fowler -120 (W); Trahan tb Junhasavasdikul -125 (W); Scott tb Fowler -107 (L); Donald tb Fowler +100 (T); Sim tb Holmes -111 (L); Slocum tb Atwal -111 (L); Na tb Atwal -110 (W); Trahan tb Gillis +105 (L); Scott tb Choi -111 (W); Scott tb Goosen +105 (L)]