6-1; +18.60pts  (system plays: 4-2-1)

Round 1 plays (4pts):

Keegan Bradley to beat Hideki Matsuyama -116 @ Bet365 [also available @ William Hill]  WON by 5
Backing the 2011 PGA Champion and World #15 against Japan's rising star who withdrew from last week's event with illness. He has never played a Tour event in Asia outside Japan and he now has all the hype to deal with in this Asian PGA Tour event. That makes this a high-pressure event for him, so I'd expect a slow start and for him to be overpriced at the moment.

K.J. Choi to beat John Huh -116 @ Bet365  WON by 3
Choi holds a 11-8 h2h record against Huh in 2013, including 10-7-2 in rd1, so would be expected to be a marginal favourite on that basis. More significant is that Choi has been in Asia in the last few weeks, finishing 21st in the CJ Invitational, whereas Huh was finishing 30th on Sunday in Las Vegas. Travel fatigue should be a factor. A final factor in Choi's favour is that he has played on this course previously, finishing 2nd in the 2010 Malaysian Open here on the European and Asian PGA Tour.

[unofficial rd1 system play: Fung tb Ismail -120 (L)]

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Chris Stroud to beat Rory Sabbatini +100 @ Bet365 [also available @ 5Dimes]  WON by 5
Easy to oppose a player who has finished 129th in each of the last two weeks, shooting 79-75 in the Frys.com Open and 72-78 in the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. He clearly played better today to end rd1 in 4th place, but it has been over a year since he last finished rd1 inside the top-10, so there's another reason to expect today's form to be temporary. Stroud has not shown his best form recently, but he still leads his opponent 9-4 h2h over the last six months and matched him today to also sit in 4th place.

Boo Weekley to beat Rory Sabbatini +100 @ William Hill  TIED
Also opposing Sabbatini with Weekley who ranked 2nd in greens in regulation in rd1 (Sabbatini was 15th). He is clearly playing much better than his opponent, so is more likely to retain his top-5 position.

Round 3 plays (4pts):

Matt Jones to beat Anirban Lahiri -120 @ 5Dimes  WON by 4
Lahiri has shown good form recently on the Asian PGA Tour, but so has Jones on the PGA Tour - 5th in the Wyndham Championship and 8th in the BMW Championship. He is a player in the top-100 in the World Rankings and his quality should prevail in this matchup. Lahiri has always struggled on this course - he has finished mc-53rd-mc-mc in his four visits - and has also struggled this week, currently down in 42nd place on the leaderboard.

Bill Haas to beat K.J. Choi -135 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 1
This has been a matchup dominated by Haas recently - he leads Choi 10-5-2 h2h in 2013 - and that looks likely to continue this week. Both players are in the top-15 after two rounds, but Haas has hit more fairways and more greens than his opponent over those two rounds, so should be more likely to shoot the lower score over the weekend.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Leishman tb Stroud -135 (L); Garcia tb Matsuyama -116 (W); Summerhays tb Gay -125 (W)] 

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Charles Howell to beat Jones Blixt -120 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Carib]  WON by 6
Backing the player who dominates this matchup and has been playing better this week. Howell holds a 13-5-1 h2h lead against Blixt in 2013 and has hit more fairways and greens than his opponent. Both are six shots off the lead, but Howell looks the more likely to close the gap on the leaders tomorrow.

Ryan Moore to beat Graham DeLaet -111 @ Bet365  WON by 1
Moore shares the lead with Chris Stroud, but he did win from the front in last year's Shriners Hospitals for Children Open and he has been in good form recently, finishing 9th and 11th in his last two starts. DeLaet's form has not been as strong recently and he has not hit as many greens in regulation this week, so I don't see him as likely challenger to Moore.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: English tb Blixt +100 (W); Watney tb Villegas -150 (W); Kirk tb Blixt -110 (T)]