BACK MIGUEL ANGEL JIMENEZ - 5 POINTS @ 5.0 (BETFAIR)

LAY MIGUEL ANGEL JIMENEZ - 8 POINTS @ 2.5 (BETFAIR - KEEP IN PLAY) 

Like many of the recent events, the top-end of the ante-post market in this co-sanctioned event looked to have a class level way above the majority of the field and indeed three-time HK Champion, the 'Legend' Miguel Angel Jimenez 'classed' his way to within two of the lead as the third round ended.  

It hasn't been perfection for the Spaniard, often looking as though he could streak away from these at will, but the odd serious error keeps bringing him back down to the pack. Of course, this leaderboard is filled with those who simply cannot cross the line unless pushed there and he remains a worthy favourite at around 3-1. Certainly, if he plays anything like the game that saw him 4th at Bridgestone, or top-10 at the DP World Championship he should be away and gone, and having won this event in 2004, 2007 and 2012 with final rounds of 65/67/65 respectively he will be confident and rightly-so - it is tough to see him being beaten by many, if any of these.

Up front, both Shiv Kapur and Stuart Manley have graduated from the season's Challenge Tour and the former makes much more appeal. Manley will be nervous ahead of leading the event and whilst he won the Finnish Challenge this year and was top-10 in the finale, that form is below the consistency of Kapur, who top-and-tailed the CT with wins in India and at that closing event, surrounding those with with a handful of top-10 finishes. Only Kapur has played here before but has little form to speak of, and whilst he looks a tad short at 5-1 to overcome the nerves that have blighted his Euro Tour career thus far, he makes plenty of appeal in the final 18-hole matchbet looking sure to handle the pressure a tad better than the Englishman. There are no prices for that yet but I'd certainly have Kapur as favourite there.

Is that it? Looks like it. Likeable warriors Prom Meesawat, Jose Lara and Steve Webster make plenty of birdies but significantly when not in the lead and seldom win, whilst the likes of Robert Jan Derksen and Richard Finch could easily make an early move, it may be too much to overcome the top class experience of Jimenez.   

The question was how to play the current favourite. Once the Betfair odds were established, that was easy. No way should Jimenez be as big as 5.0 (currently for £300+) and he is to be backed at that price given he gets first dibs at the birdie holes. The market should move in his favour quickly but given it is Payday, keep a lay up to cover and make a small profit towards the end of the stretch, whatever happens.