3-7; -15.30pts  (system plays: 2-0-0) 

Round 1 plays (4pts):

Robert-Jan Derksen to beat Paul Waring -120 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 3
Backing the course specialist Derksen who has made the cut in all seven previous visits, secured five top-15 finishes in those seven visits, including each of his last four. Waring finished 34th on his only previous visit to Hong Kong GC and hasn't recorded a top-20 finish in six previous visits to China; Derksen has 10 top-10 finishes in this country, including four of his last five visits, so this should be a venue on which he has a clear advantage.

Robert-Jan Derksen to beat David Lipsky -111 @ Bet365 [also available @ SkyBet]  LOST by 8
Lipsky finished 12th on his debut here last year and has been in good form recently, but he only has one other appearance in China (76th in the limited field 2012 HSBC Champions), whereas Derksen's proven record in this country provides him with the edge, in my opinion.

No round 2 plays. 

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Mark Foster to beat Jack Doherty -138 @ Paddy Power [available generally]  WON by 6
With both players inside the top-20, it is easy to oppose Doherty in this position - he has just one top-30 finish in his last 20 starts. He has been in this position in the last six months, but in NH Collection Open in April he dropped from 7th after 36 holes to finish 54th and in the Russian Open he dropped from 12th after two rounds to 54th.

Richard Bland to beat Adam Groom -173 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  LOST by 2
And, conversely, it is easy to back Bland in this matchup that also features two players inside the top-20. He has five top-25 finishes in his last eight starts, including 4th last week in Portugal. No such form from Groom whose last top-25 finish was in November 2013.

Ernie Els to beat Raphael Jacquelin -120 @ Stan James [available generally]  LOST by 2
Admittedly, Els is not the player who was so dominant when leading from the front: in the 17 times that he held the 36-hole lead between 2002 and 2010, he won 12 times and never finish worse than 2nd. However, he was in this position last year BMW International Open and stayed on course to be a wire-to-wire winner, so I do see him playing well again tomorrow. He will certainly have local support and should beat Jacquelin who has struggled from tee-to-green this week - he ranks 102nd in driving distance, 72nd in driving accuracy and 66th in greens in regulation, yet is 2nd on the leaderboard.

Charlie Wi to beat Javier Colomo -110 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 5
Much lower down the leaderboard, I'll back the better player - he ranks over 100 places higher on the World Rankings - who showed much better form in Web.com Tour Finals and now has Conditional Status on the PGA Tour for 2014-15, but this is still at a much higher level than that achieved by Colomo who is 41st on the Asian PGA Tour Money List.

[unofficial rd3 system play: Liang tb Kjeldsen -125 (W)] 

Round 4 plays (2pts):

Javier Colomo to beat Scott Hend +110 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 4

Jbe Kruger to beat Marcus Fraser +105 @ SkyBet  LOST by 2

Ernie Els to beat Raphael Jacquelin -135 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  WON by 1

Angelo Que to beat Scott Hend -111 @ Bet365  WON by 1

[unofficial rd4 system play: Els tb Smith -150 (W)]