6-3; +15.54pts  (system plays: 0-1-1) 

Round 1 plays (4pts):

Ryan Moore to beat Brendan Grace +100 @ 5Dimes  TIED
Backing the winner of this event in each of the last two years of this event, both times on this course. Grace has played on this course just once previously - he finished 40th in the 2012 Malaysian Open - and he has played in just one event in the last nine week - he finished 30th in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship so he is clearly not in the same form as Moore who finished in the top-10 in the Frys.com Open two weeks ago.

Ryan Moore to beat Sergio Garcia +135 @ 5Dimes  WON by 3
I was surprised that Moore was an underdog against Grace, but price makes me suspect that I've missed some important news about Moore this week. I've looked and can't find it. Like the first match, Moore's opponent is very rusty - just one start in the last ten weeks - and even though he has a good record on this course - 11th and 2nd - he is still a long way behind Moore as a course specialist.

John Senden to beat Luke Donald +101 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 4
Donald did finish 5th last time out in the British masters, but he is still a long way from the top of his game and he did miss the cut in his last visit to this course - the 2013 Malaysian Open. Senden comes into the event in better form and finished 7th on this course last year, so he should be the favourite in this match.

Charles Howell to beat Ben Martin -110 @ 5Dimes  WON by 4
Backing experience in this matchup. Martin has never previously played in a Tour event in Asia, so may struggle with the humidity as well as the different course conditions in Malaysia. Howell does have the experience to play well here - he finished 7th on this course two years ago - so should be the clear favourite on this course.

[unofficial rd1 system play: Watney tb Streb +110 (L)] 

Round 2 plays (4pts unless stated):

Adam Scott to beat Patrick Reed -106 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 2
With finishes of 26th and 40th in the last two years on this course, Reed has clearly not played as well as would be expected for the World #19 so that rather suggests that this is not the ideal course/environment for him. He did finish rd1 in 16th place, but he is still six shots off the pace. Scott shot the same score on his course debut and should only better with more experience. With a top-10 finish in Japan last time out, he also has the form to be more competitive than Reed this week.

Nick Watney to beat Robert Streb +111 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  LOST by 1
A good price to oppose Streb who is playing in his first Tour event in Asia. He did finish one shot ahead of Watney yesterday, but he has finished behind Watney in each of their last two common events and Watney is a former winner of this event.

Tony Finau to beat Branden Grace +116 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 3
Opposing Grace again given this price. Finau shot four shots worse than Grace yesterday, but hit more greens in regulation and ranked inside the top-10 in that category. He has played well in the last two weeks and did so again yesterday - he just needs to score better and that should come with course experience.

Matt Jones to beat Scott Hend -120 @ 5Dimes [2pts]  LOST by 1
Two players inside the top-10 after rd1, but this is a matchup dominated by Jones. He leads Hend 10-1-1 h2h in their last 12 common events. Hend does have a good record on the Asian PGA Tour, but he has a best finish of 40th in two attempts in this PGA Tour co-sanctioned event and he has missed 18 of his last 23 PGA Tour cuts, so I doubt that he will be able to stay inside the top-10.

[unofficial rd2 system play: Howell tb Smith -111 (T)] 

Round 3 play (2pts):

Sergio Garcia to beat Branden Grace -111 @ Paddy Power  TIED
Two players who have played just one event in the previous nine weeks, but it is Garcia who has returned to Tour action in better form - he ranks 1st in greens in regulation over the first two rounds; Grace ranks 39th. With finishes of 11th and 2nd in the two years at this course, Garcia's game is clearly suited to this course and he should have scored much better than he has done over the first two rounds. That should be remedied today.

Round 4 plays (2pts):

Kevin Na to beat Justin Thomas -107 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  LOST by 1
Na is the form player with 2nd place finishes in each of the last two weeks on the PGA Tour, plus he finished 2nd in this event last year. That may suggest that he won't win from one shot back today, but he will remain in contention throughout. Thomas is 0-for-1 when in this position after 54 holes on the PGA Tour, so I don't see him winning this either.

Justin Thomas to beat Brendan Steele -120 @ SkyBet  WON by 2
However, I think that Thomas will fare better than co-leader Steele, who did win from this position in the 2011 Texas Open, but has played very poorly from this position in his two previous occasions: in the 2011 PGA Championship he shot 77 in rd4 to drop from 1st to 19th; in the 2015 Frys.com Open he shot 76 to drop from 1st to 17th. That was only two weeks ago, so his confidence will be rather fragile if he does have a difficult start to his round.