7-5; +6.17pts  (system plays: 1-1-0) 

Round 1 plays (2pts unless stated):

Anirban Lahiri to beat Tyrell Hatton +105 @ 5Dimes [4pts]  WON by 5
Lahiri shouldn't be priced as the underdog in this matchup. He has ranked 2nd and 3rd in the Asian PGA Tour Order of Merit in the last two years and has plenty of experience in this event and on this course, including a top-10 finish last year. Hatton has never played previously on this course and in his two events in Asia on the European or Asian PGA Tours, he has finished 54th and mc. That shouldn't make him a favourite against Lahiri in an event in Asia.

Marc Warren to beat Emiliano Grillo -115 @ 5Dimes  TIED
Two form players, but Grillo looks to be a player to oppose this week - he has played in this event twice previously, missed the cut both times and has a scoring average of 76.0 around this course. Warren was inside the top-10 after rd1 last year, so looked more suited to the course/climate this week.

Edoardo Molinari to beat Thorbjorn Olesen -110 @ 5Dimes  WON by 6
Continuing to oppose Olesen who has finished 50th-mc-mc so far in 2015 and he missed the cut in his one previous visit to Kuala Lumpur GC. Molinari finished 2nd here two years ago and has finished ahead of Olesen in each of the last two weeks, so looks a strong favourite to do so again this week.

Round 2 plays (4pts unless stated):

Marcus Fraser to beat Edoardo Molinari +110 @ 5Dimes  WON by 4
Both players finished the day in 39th place, but even though they were equal in scoring, they were very different in ball-striking: Fraser ranked inside the top-15 for driving accuracy and greens in regulation; Molinari ranked outside the top-50 in both those categories. That fits with Molinari's play so far in 2015: this is already his 5th start of the year and his finishes have been 41st-mc-33rd-63rd. These look goods odds to oppose a player who is not in great form.

David Howell to beat Andrew Dodt -119 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes] [2pts]  LOST by 1
Dodt is a regular on the Asian PGA Tour and is making his 7th appearance in this event, but is yet to finish in the top-30. He did finish rd1 in 10th place, but it rather suggests that he will not stay there. That is also supported by a look at his history in this situation. Since the 2010 Wales Open, he has been inside the top-10 after rd1 of a European Tour-sanctioned event on eight previous occasions ... his finishing positions on those eight occasions have been 39th-18th-mc-mc-28th-37th-48th-48th. Howell is the type of steady player who should be profitable to side with when opposing such players.

Round 3 plays (2pts unless stated):

Alvaro Quiros to beat Robert Rock +100 @ Paddy Power [also available @ Bet365] [4pts]  WON by 7
Another good event for Quiros. He sits inside the top-10 after rd2 after having finished in the top-25 in the last two weeks and finished in the top-30 in all three previous visits to Kuala Lumpur GC. As an underdog, I'll back him to shoot another good score and defeat Rock who has just one top-40 finish in six previous attempts on this course.

Pablo Larrazabal to beat Paul Peterson -165 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  LOST by 3
Larrazabal has struggled from tee-to-green this week, but he still sits in 21st place and he can only play better over the weekend when his experience should count. Ranked #75 in the World Rankings, he should be able to come to the fore over the final two rounds whereas Peterson should struggle as this is only the 2nd European Tour-sanctioned start for the Asian PGA Tour regular and he missed the cut on the previous occasion.

Robert Rock to beat Jake Higginbottom -131 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  LOST by 7
It is a similar story in opposing another Asian PGA Tour regular in this matchup. Higginbottom has played in just two previous European Tour-sanctioned events and, like Peterson, missed the cut both times, but now finds himself 9th at the cut (Peterson is 16th). Both arre much higher on the leaderboard than expected and they will not be used to this pressure. Rock should be dependable enough on Moving Day to take advantage.

Gregory Havret to beat Angelo Que -130 @ 5Dimes  WON by 5
Another Asian PGA Tour regular opposed in this matchup, though at least Que has some experience of these 'big events' on the Asian PGA Tour. But he had shown little form in the last three months, whereas Havret had finished in the top-20 in Dubai last week. This should be the day in which the more experienced European Tour players come to the fore, so this looks like a standard play for rd3.

[unofficial rd3 system play: Pieters tb Fleetwood -120 (W)] 

Round 4 plays (2pts):

Graeme McDowell to beat Morten Orum Madsen -152 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  LOST by 3
McDowell has been one of the best players from tee-to-green this week, but he is now 12 shots behind the leader and out of contention; Madsen is a shot further back and has been poor from tee-to-green this week. It points to a continuation of McDowell 3-0-0 h2h record against Madsen in rd4.

Lee Westwood to beat Anirban Lahiri -170 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  LOST by 7
Opposing the player who shot the low round of the day (62) and matched the course record in the process. It is always difficult to follow up such a round, so all the more reason to side with Westwood who recovered with two closing birdies to finish the day two shots off the lead, when he had been leading at the start of the round.

Mark Foster to beat Angelo Que -140 @ 5Dimes  WON by 1
A similar angle to yesterday's plays in this matchup. Foster is the better player and already has two top-10 finishes in this event. I'll side with him and oppose a player who has yet to break par this week and dropped five shots in his last five holes today.

Robert Rock to beat David Lipsky -145 @ 5Dimes  WON by 4
Like McDowell, Rock is another who should be much higher up the leaderboard based on his tee-to-green play - he ranks 4th in greens in regulation. He is still ahead of Lipsky so far this week and has far more potential to score well tomorrow if his putter warms up a little.

[unofficial rd4 system play: Kang S tb Chia -112 (L)]