Pre-tournament plays:

LAY 20pts liability

Soo-Min Lee 75
Jazz Janewattanond 240
Jason Scrivener 95
Lee did finish 3rd in this event last year, but he has failed to show ny of his early 2015-16 season form in the second half of 2016: over the last seven months (20 events), he has managed just one top-25 finish and his finishes in the last two months read: mc-mc-77th-70th-61st-56th. Admittedly, that does show some signs of improvement, but his form is a long way from the level that it was at the last Hong Kong Open
Janewattanond has only played in three events since July and a 79 in the final round of last week's Panasonic Open India showed that maybe he is still rather Tour-rusty. Given that he is yet to record a top-10 finish in 19 previous European Tour-sanctioned events, he will need to playing much better if he is to break that duck
Like Lee, Scrivener finished 3rd here last year, but also like Lee, he hasn't displayed great form in the second half of the year with nine missed cuts in his last 16 starts. There has been evidence of better form on the Australasian Tour over the past month, but these odds are rather short given this profile

Pre-rd3 plays:

LAY 20pts liability

Patrick Reed 160
Paul Dunne 180
Carlos Pigem 160
Scott Hend 75
Difficult to imagine that Reed will even get into contention from his current position - 49th, 11 shots off the pace and with ball-striking stats that rank even lower than his current leaderboard position
Dunne is a little closer in 18th place, but he is still seven shots behind Cabrera-Bello whose play warrants his position at the top of the leaderboard; the Spaniard has won twice on the European Tour previously so he will be a very hard player to catch from this position over the weekend
Pigem is the best-placed of the group, but he is still outside the top-10 and seven shots off the pace. He secured his first top-5 finish in 32 attempts on the European Tour in South Africa last week, but he still doesn't look like a player who can win from this position
Hend sits alongside Dunne and can at least warrant the shorter odds having won this title two years ago, but on that occasion he was in 2nd place and only two shots behind Ernie Els at this stage. Given that the only time that he has secured a top-5 finish from eight back at this stage was the 2010 Black Mountain Masters (he finished 3rd), I like these odds on him not winning this event.