11-0; +3.67pts 

Pre-tournament plays:

LAY liability 20pts

Thomas Pieters 34  mc
Romain Wattel 220  15th
David Drysdale 390  mc
Matthew Fitzpartick 26  mc
Jazz Janewattanond 400  mc
I'd price all five at double these odds. The course hasn't been used on the European Tour since 2002 and has undergone major renovations during that time, but the indications are that it will not suit Pieters who ranks inside the top-15 on Tour for dirving distance; Wattel is another who ranks much higher for distance than accuracy, but can easily be oppoed on the back of three missed cuts; Drysdale last won a Challenge Tour event ten years ago and has just one top-5 finish in any event in the last four years; Fitzpatrick hasn't looked to be at the top of his game so far this year; while Janewattanond has a poor record in European Tour-sanctioned events and is not ready for this level of competition.

Pre-rd3 plays:

LAY liability 20pts

Joost Luiten 110  15th
Louis Oosthuizen 23  12th
Stephen Gallacher 310  15th
Luiten is ten shots off the pace and in 28th place, so should be much higher odds than this; Oosthuizen is the closest of the three in 12th place, but he is still eight shots off the pace and I'm surprised that he is priced as low as this; while I'm surprised that Gallacher is priced with even a chance of winning this event, being nine shots off the pace and with poor ball-striking stats so far this week.

Pre-rd4 plays:

LAY liability 20pts

Danny Willett 120  45th
Lucas Bjerregaard 390  24th
Pablo Larrazabal 30  6th
I think Lee will be a strong front-runner tomorrow and that is bad news for these three who are 9, 9 and 6 shots back respectively. Willett has shot a higher score with each progressive round and this surely too big a lead to make-up tomorrow; that might be possible with a player like Willett given Snedeker's performance a few weeks ago, but Bjerregaard is not in the same league; Larrazabal has a far more realistic chance of winning, but he is still six shots back and these are very short odds given such a deficit and he will need a lot of help from Lee to justify these odds.