2-3; +2.39pts

No pre-tournament plays.

Pre-rd3 plays:

BACK to win 20pts

Justin Rose 9.4  10th
Considered back all three before the tournament, but wanted to see how they fared in the first couple of rounds after Sunday's drama. Rose's good form has continued - he leads this event in birdies so far - and he won here two years ago. Fatigue doesn't appear to be a factor (yet) and I would price him at lower odds given the players ahead of him so far.
Tommy Fleetwood 12.5  6th
Fleetwood is one shot ahead of Rose and he has also maintained his strong play over to this event - he leads the field in greens in regulation so far. Like Rose, he has a good record in this event - he finished 3rd here last year - and he is another player that I would price a couple of points lower than his current market price.
Rafa Cabrera Bello 22  2nd
Cabrera Bello is alongside Rose, can also point to strong form coming into this event and a good record on this course - he led for three rounds last year before finishing 2nd behind Brazel wh birdied the last hole, hte hardest hole on the course. This looks an attractive price given the leaderboard.

LAY 20pts liability

S.S.P. Chawrasia 4.6  7th
Chawrasia has had a couple of top-10 finishes in the last two weeks on the Asian PGA Tour and he now leads this event by two shots over Thomas Aiken, but the lead had been five shots and then he three-putted the 14th. He has won on the European Tour previously, but only in his home country, and with the quality of players within five shots, this will be weekend where it will be difficult to him not to look at who is in the chasing pack. I don't think that he will still be leading by the end of the next round.

Pre-rd4 play:

LAY 20pts liability

Alexander Bjork 11.5  2nd
Yet to win on the European Tour even though he has twice led the event at the start of the final round this year (Tshwane Open and Open de France), which shows that he has the potential but not yet reached that level on this Tour where he can be priced at these odds when 4th and two shots off the pace. Those odds look particularly short when he is behind Cabrera Bello and alongside Fleetwood (who still leads the greens in regulation stats) and he doesn't rank inside the top-20 this week for any of the key tee-to-green stats: driving distance, driving accuracy, greens in regulation and scrambling.