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Hao-Tang Li - 2 points each-way @ 28-1 (1/5 1234)
Whilst Justin Rose and Tommy Fleetwood are of obvious interest at halfway, both players duelled over an emotional race to the 2017 title just seven days ago and can't be counted on to play at top form through the weekend. With top-grade Matt Fitzpatrick today showing signs of losing his form after a long season, there is no real impetus to bet either of the best-rated players at their short prices. I can't trust Thomas Aiken ever which makes current leader, Chawrasia, look decent value at the current 3-1. Given the short-hitting Indian often comes to life round short, tricky tracks and has lifetime conversion rates of 4/7 when inside the top2 at halfway and the same stat after round 3, he could easily be one that slips away. However, whilst he has never been prominent here in over 10 starts (one top-5 shines out from a myriad of average efforts) there isn't enough there to go lumping on with some very promising players behind. Im a huge fan of Julian Suri, who will win plenty when learning to quickly forget any errors on the course, but he is far too short for me. He won well in Denmark on his first real oppertunity at this level but has let a couple of chances go recently. That is no criticism at all, I just need more to back him at around 10-1, the same price as Fleetwood just a shot behind. It is very tough not to like Hao-Tong Li though, both for his attitude and also his extremely impressive golf! A multiple winner on his home tour, Li stormed on to the European scene with a runner-up finish in the 2015 Shenzhen International, only losing to Alphie in a play-off before following up with a 6th in the China Open. Unusually for him, Li had a poor final round, something he fell to when top-10 at the top-class late-season HSBC Champions but has certainly learned to overcome in recent years. 2016 saw Li win his biggest prize at the time, when a final round 64 was good enough to overcome the bogey of the previous year, winning the China Open by three shots whilst he continued to show improved weekend scores through many of the remaining events. 130th in the OWGR at the start iof this year, the 22-year-old has continued to progress with weekend rounds of 68/65 closing to 5th at the Maybank, a best-of-the-day 66 launching up the board at Rocco Forte and a last-round 67 in France securing another top-10. However, it has been the final round at The Open at Birkdale that launched the amiable Chinese youngster into the public domain. Breaking all previous records by a Chinese player at a Major, Li's 63 once again showed his prowess when it counts with a bogey free round highlighted with a back-nine 31 and it is no surprise he has takena short while to rediscover his best play but the last two weeks have shown he is ready to strike again. Once again, Li showed his desire to play a full 72-holes each and every week with a best-of-the-day 64 at the Nedbank launching him from 26th to 4th, whilst at the pressure-cooker of the DP teo 67's rose his name from the mid-20s to 13th. Li looks certain to continue his progress throughout the next couple of years, and having qualified for this year's Masters, who knows how far he can go. A proven winner, with a taste for runs of birdies, he has already shown decent approach play this week without having made many putts. His nerve is better than a lot of the players currently above him and I can only see him rise up the leaderboard over the weekend.
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