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Preview & Tips

Tipster: 2019 P/L: +36.10pts

Odds: Outright

 
 
China Open

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It’s the final week of globe-trotting for the European Tour journeymen. They play the first event of the year in China before the Tour reaches Continental Europe next week where it will stay until returning to China and the HSBC Champions in the first week of November.

The event was originally scheduled to be played at The Tradition at Wolong Valley in Chengdu, but it was switched to Genzon Golf Club in Shenzhen a couple of months ago. That is not a lot of time to prepare a course for a Tour event, but it is an established Tour event having hosted this event in 2014 and the Shenzhen International between 2015 and 2017.

The course is not long for a par-72, only 7,145 yards in length, and the fairways are generous, which would suggest that big-hitters would have an advantage here, particularly as the course is wet. But only the winner here in 2014, Alexander Levy, ranked inside the top-20 for driving distance that week. The other three winners on this course were not long off the tee, so driving is not going to be key this week.

Admittedly, the four winners here – Levy, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Soomin Lee and Bernd Wiesberger – have very different games and all four were making their course debut when they won here, so there are not many clear angles this week from the four years on view, but the following should be of interest.

 

Angles to consider

1. Form in South-East Asia

It is typically hot and humid in Shenzhen in May so familiarity with the climatic conditions will be important for those making the one-stop journey from Africa to China this week. The course itself is described by Alexander Bjork as being a ‘tropical-style course’.

Strong recent performances in this region has been a feature amongst the four winners here. Levy had finished 3rd in the Thailand Golf Championship in his last visit to Asia before his win in 2014; Aphibarnrat finished 4th in the Thailand Classic in his last Asian event, two months before his win in 2015; Lee had finished 2nd in the Maybank Championship Malaysia a couple of months before winning in 2016; and Wiesberger had finished 3rd in the Maybank Championship in his last Asian event, two months before winning in 2017.

 

2. Ability on Paspalum greens

Paspalum is an unusual grass type for greens on the European Tour, but there are a number of events on the European and Challenge Tours that have been played on courses that have used it. One famous recent example is the Saudi International where Sergio Garcia was disqualified for deliberately damaging the greens.

It is used in areas where the water quality may not be high as it can withstand seawater/saltwater. Typically it is the Sea Dwarf / Seashore Paspalum variety that is used, but it is the ‘Platinum’ variety used at Genzon (also used on Tour for the 2012 HSBC Champions, also in Shenzhen, and the Egyptian Challenge on the Challenge Tour).

Three of the four winners here have had success on the small number of Tour events with Paspalum greens. Levy 3rd in the Thailand Golf Championship at Amata Spring Country Club just a few months before winning at Genzon, while Wiesberger and Aphibarnrat have excellent records on the Pasapalum greens at TPC Kuala Lumpur. Wiesberer finished 2nd in the last two Malaysian Opens played there, while Aphibarnrat has a win and two more 3rd place finishes on this course (Malaysian Open, CIMB Classic)

 

Selections

The above angles have been used to create a shortlist from which the following player has been selected.

 

Matthias Schwab

Schwab is certainly an under-the-radar player, but this is an event without any headline players beyond Hao-Tong Li, who is the only player in this field who is ranked inside the top-60 in the World Rankings.

The Austrian had a very strong rookie season last year, securing four top-10 finishes and ranking 5th in greens in regulation overall. This year, he has improved his performances further with two more top-10 finishes and he has missed only one cut in the last six months.

He is getting much closer to contending at the top of the leaderboard as well. Last month, he was 3rd after rd1 of the Maybank Championship before finishing 30th, he was 6th with one round to play in the Indian Open before finishing 18th, and last week he was 7th after rounds 1 and 2 before finishing 9th.

With finishes in this region of 30th last month as well 9th in the Hong Kong Open in November, less than 20 miles away from this week’s venue, he has the necessary form in South-East Asia. With a top-15 finish on the Paspalum greens at Al Mouj (when on the Challenge Tour) and a top-25 finish against a very strong field in the Saudi International in February, he was certainly compete on these greens as well.

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Tips  0-1; -6.00pts

6pts Matthias Schwab to finish in the top-five 10/1 (Ladbrokes)  mc