Australian Open

One of the oldest national championships in the world can boast a very impressive roll-call of past winners: Gene Sarazen, Gary Player (7 times), Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus (6 times) and of course Greg Norman (5 times). But with the exception of Lee Westwood who beat Greg Norman in a playoff in 1997, the last six Opens have been won by home players. There seems little reason for that to change this week with a reduced international element this year.

Kingston Heath was ranked the 2nd best course in Australia by the Australian Golf Digest earlier this year, behind Royal Melbourne. But the Heath is longer having been recently lengthened by just over 100 meters and its fairways are narrower where the pros are expected to hit their drives. Nevertheless, the course only covers some 6336 meters, which is less than 7000 yards, and so is still short by European or PGA Tour standards. Length is not a great advantage on this course, but accuracy off the tee and the ability to hit to the 'correct' side of the pin. The greens were berated in 1995 when this event was last staged here for being too fast. They will again be fast, so good putting, but more importantly accurate iron play and sensible course management will determine the winner.

The favorites are Allenby & Appleby this week, but are passed over in value terms. They are not worth single figure odds. Instead, even though small sample bias through up David Podlich and Brett Ogle as the top two in the Tour-tips rankings (available @ 100/1 and 80/1 respectively), this week's three outright selections are Adam Scott, Peter O'Malley and Pierre Fulke.

Scott is not an accuracy player - he ranked 50th on the European Tour in driving accuracy and 3rd in driving distance this year - but he the biggest emerging talent from Australia and has already had a number of top-10 finishes in his maiden year on the European Tour. Coached by Butch Harmon and with a swing almost identical to Tiger's, he looks as though he has/will have the game to play on any course. Paired with Aaron Baddeley, last year's winner as an amateur, and Brad Lamb, Scott will dominate this group of former amateur champions and show how much further he has come since turning professional.

Peter O'Malley is much more in the mould of the successful player on this course. 7th in driving accuracy and 15th in greens in regulation in an otherwise relatively unsuccessful European campaign is ideal this week. He had a respectable 12th place finish last week with his driving accuracy and greens in regulation stats showing no dip from their impressive season average and he has finished 7th and 11th in this event in the last two years. He should go close again.

Finally, an 'outsider' is considered for at least a place finish. Fulke was a very impressive winner of the Volvo Masters three weeks ago, his 2nd win of the year. It continued a long run of top-20 finishes. Not a frequent visitor to Australian shores, but he has the ideal game for this course and his confidence is as high as it has ever been. He was ranked 5th in the European Tour stats this year for driving accuracy and 3rd in putting average, and while his season average for greens in regulation was enough for only a top-50 position, he has been averaging 73% of greens hit in regulation in the past two months, enough for a top-10 position in that category. A proven winner on top of his game and with a week's rest, he should be the top European.

Outright plays:

Adam Scott to win e/w 25/1 @ Paddy Power

Peter O'Malley to win e/w 40/1 @ Surrey or Paddy Power

Pierre Fulke to win e/w 50/1 @ DAS

72-hole plays:

Adam Scott to beat Aaron Baddeley -125 @ Centrebet [3 units]
Baddeley has simply disappointed since winning this event last year; turning pro and pressures of defending will be too much for him. Not in the same league as Justin Rose, but shouldn't pose any threat to the next Australian Major winner

Brett Ogle to beat Scott Gardiner -111 @ First Stake [2 units]
Ogle added another top-20 finish last week to prove that he can still compete after his two-year layoff. He faces the rising aboriginal star Gardiner in this matchup who finished 11th last year, but was very poor last week after starting well

Peter O'Malley to beat Paul Gow -111 @ Sportodds
Gow performed well on this Tour last season, winning the Canon Challenge, but he has an unnerving record in this event. Last year he was the 1st round leader but fell away and closed poorly with a 76 and the year before he was the leader after 36 holes only to shoot 85 in the 3rd round. He similarly fell away from a great 1st round position last week and looks one to oppose this week against more-seasoned players

Craig Parry to beat Paul Gow -125 @ Centrebet
'Popeye' has 18 wins in Australia under his belt and a decent record in this event. Very accurate and at his best on hard courses he looks good to secure a top-10 finish yet again

Wayne Smith to beat Paul Gow -110 @ Intertops
The top-two after the 1st round last week. Smith justified his high Tour-tips rating last week by holding on to a 6th place finish, while Gow fell away. Expect pretty much the same this week

Shane Tait to beat Lucas Parsons -111 @ First Stake
Parsons shot to fame winning the Greg Norman Holden International, but quite frankly, he has not impressed me since. His main asset, length off the tee, will not a great help this week

Mid-point update:

None of the 72-hole plays are decided at the cut. Just as well as only two of the six are leading   They currently stand 2-3-1 with the main go-against, Paul Gow, following that most predictable of patterns. He shot 68 in the first round to lead the event, just as in the past in this tournament and just as last week, and similarly fell away thereafter with a second round 77. Unfortunately, only one of his three opponents was able to capitalize: Peter O'Malley leads him by four shots. In the other two, Parry trails Gow by two and Smith trails him by three. But with 36 holes to go, there is less pressure on these players than the 1st round leader. In the other matches, Ogle leads Gardiner by one, Tait is tied with Parsons and in the three-unit play, Scott is seven shots behind Baddeley, a surprise 2nd round leader.

The outright plays look hopeful. O'Malley is in 4th place, three shots behind the leaders; Fulke is in 9th place, one shot further back; and Scott is in 21st place, four shots out of a place finish and seven shots out of the lead.

Final round plays:

Robert Allenby to beat Aaron Baddeley -125 @ First Stake [2 units]

Martin Doyle to beat Paul Marantz +100 @ Centrebet

David Podlich to beat David Hill -118 @ Centrebet [2 units]

Brett Ogle to beat Terry Price -110 @ Simon Bold

72-hole plays stand 4-2 after 3rd round with Parry losing by four to Gow and Scott Losing by eight to Baddeley. No unit gained if things stay as they are as the Scott was a 3-unit play   Decent chance of some return from the outright plays with all three selections in the top-10 with 18 holes to play, though chances of winning event are rather remote.

Final update: 3-1 and +1.50 units for the day; 7-3 and +1.50 units for the week

Good 10-shot win for Doyle on the day, while Podlich and Ogle secured single shot wins. Allenby lost by three, but always looked a loser after double-bogeying the first hole. Still a profitable day, which the 72-hole plays were not. They finished 4-2-0 for +0.00 units   Ogle won by one, O'Malley and Smith by two and Tait by four, while Scott lost by ten to Baddeley and Parry finished one behind Gow. Very surprised to see Baddeley play well, let alone defend his title! Small return on 70% winners this week.

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Very disappointing to not gain anything from the outright plays. Fulke was the only e/w play payable on four, not five positions, and he finished 5th   Had been 3rd on his own for some time, but bogey-double-bogey on 15 & 16 was pretty damaging. O'Malley finished 7th, two shots out of a place finish and he completed the first nine in two-over-par. Scott finished 13th, but had made an early and promising move for a place finish, but four bogeys on his back nine, plus a double to close with meant that the three shots he finished out of a place finish were within his grasp right until the end.

Because of time differences, had only watched the first-nine action and things were looking very good at that stage. What a frustrating sport this is!