Australian PGA Championship

The long season has begun. This is really the start of the 2002 season as the PGA Tour of Australasia moves over to a calendar schedule. This side of Christmas, there are just two events: the Australian PGA Championship and the Holden Australian Open. Both appear twice on this season's schedule as they are replayed in November 2002. This is one of the oldest PGA Championships in the world, dating back to 1905, and typically boasts a strong field. It is the same this week even though it is unusually the season-opening event.

The venue is the Royal Queensland Golf Club which is hosting this event for the second consecutive year, having hosted the ANZ Players Championship for three years beforehand. There is therefore ample course form, though the typically tight course may not be as intimidating this time because of the recent wet weather. The forecast is fine, but the course should play longer and be less punishing off the tee. Mind you, there is an unusual local rule that comes into play off the 12th tee. The course borders the Brisbane River and the large bridge that spans it, the Gateway Bridge, also spans the course. Players have to drive under the bridge off the 12th tee, though they are entitled to replay their shot if they hit the construction. For an old-fashioned golf course, this is a very unusual sight.

The three selections for this event are Chris Riley, Scott Laycock and Rod Pampling. Ignoring the very short prices on Allenby and Appleby, Riley looks the best value of the US PGA Tour players on view this week. He has been in great form since finishing 2nd in the International with top-15 finishes in six of his last nine events. Importantly, this is not his first visit to Royal Queensland - Australian courses play very differently to those on the US PGA Tour - he finished 25th last year. He should certainly improve on that finish with his game at the moment.

Laycock is another in fine form on a foreign tour. He has finished no worse than 16 in his last eight tournaments on the Japan Tour, including three top-3 finishes in his last five events, and currently stands 12th on their Money List. He has improved from 63% of greens hit in regulation in 2000 to 70% this season, which is a huge jump, and he will need this level of ball-striking to compete around this course. He almost secured a top-5 finish last year, but he finished five shots out of that spot with a 3rd round 78; he looks to have a good chance to make amends this year.

Pampling has spent his Australian winter months on the Buy.com Tour and like the others, comes into this event in fine form. He secured eight top-5 finishes on Tour this season, including the Tour Championship, and secured his 2002 card for the PGA Tour by finishing 4th on the Money List. He has a good record on this course with top-20 finishes on each of his three visits, including 7th last time out, and with the course playing long, it should suit the big-hitting Pampling even more.

Outright plays:

Chris Riley to win 16/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds

Scott Laycock to win 33/1 e.w. @ NetBetSports [6 places]

Rod Pampling to win 33/1 e.w. @ Surrey, Sportingbet or Bet365

72-hole plays:

Jarrod Moseley to beat Paul Gow -120 @ Camelot
Both have played sparingly on their Tours in the last two months with their cards safe for 2002. The difference is that Moseley has had two top-30 finishes from three events in that period, whereas Gow failed to reach the weekend in any of his three events

Chris Riley to beat Stephen Leaney -110 @ UKBetting [2 units]
Leaney has also played sparingly in the past few months, but when he has played he has not played particularly well. His last top-10 finish was at the Dutch Open in July and he has since missed as many cuts as he has made. He may be a former winner of the ANZ Players Championship (1999) on this course, but he is not in the same form as Riley

Craig Parry to beat Peter Lonard -111 @ Centrebet
Lonard bucks the trend in Australians taking a break before the start of this Tour. He has played on the European Tour in each of the last four weeks and that cannot be ideal preparation for this event. His form is arguably better than that of Parry who finished 7th in the Invensys Classic, but has otherwise missed five of his last six cuts, but the fact that Parry finished 3rd in 1999 and was in contention before signing for a wrong score last is enough reason to side with Parry. The fatigue factor for Lonard is crucial though

Lucas Parsons to beat Stephen Scahill -118 @ Centrebet [3 units]
Parsons showed great strength to break his slump - 13 missed cuts in 15 events - and make the cut in each of his last five events to secure his European Tour card for next season. He should be able to bring that renewed form into this event and on a course on which he has finished in the top-25 in his three visits. Scahill has not played since September and should be rusty by comparison

Mid-point update:

Two of the four plays are decided at the cut and they are split. Moseley missed the cut by one and ended his tournament four shots behind Gow, while Parsons made the cut by one, but it was enough for the 3-unit play as Scahill failed to make the cut and finished two shots behind him. In the remaining plays, Riley trails Leaney by three and Parry leads Lonard by one. The outrights are not particularly impressive. Allenby named Pampling as his best rival for the title this week and the curse worked. He missed the cut. The other two selections made the cut by a single shot and lie in 51st place, nine shots behind Allenby.

Final update: 2-2-0 and +0.60 units

Parry recorded an easy eight-shot victory as Lonard slumped off the leaderboard in the final round, but the Riley-Leaney play is frustratingly graded a loss at UKBetting as they tie on 285   A small profit on the matchups, but not enough to cover the outrights

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Very poor week in the outrights. Riley and Laycock improved to 25th and 31st respectively, though they were never in contention for a place finish. Pampling missed the cut.