Australian Open

Will have preview & picks up a few hours, but get on Eurobet's offering of 28/1 for Howell while it lasts

One of the oldest national championships in the world may be being played on a course that closed just one day after it was opened, but a lot has changed at The Grand in the last decade. After closing in 1990 due to insufficient funds, the site was repurchased in 1996 and Greg Norman was brought in to redesign the course. Now it has been nominated for consideration amongst the world's greatest 100 courses in Golf Magazine USA and is a worthy home for the 2001 Australian Open. The course itself is a par-71 and short at just 6,182m, though Norman has admitted that spectators should expect low scores. Nevertheless, the course requires good shot-making skills and a putting contest is not to be expected.

The three selections this week are Ernie Els, Adam Scott and Charles Howell. This has been a disappointing season for Els. Last year he was runner-up in three majors, but this year he has failed for the first time since 1993 to win on the PGA Tour. He did at least secure his first win of the year with Retief Goosen last week and it should reduce the pressure on him. Now he admits to "feeling fresh again" and with tight course being most-suited to his game, he looks a justifiable favorite.

Another who may have been a little disappointed with his season is Adam Scott. He won his opening event of the year - the Alfred Dunhill Championship - but immediately lost form as his recurrent knee injury became more problematic. Since then he has played well in bursts and with a 3rd place finish in the Volvo Masters two weeks ago, he looks to be a decent shot to end the season as he started it. Maybe then he will get that knee sorted out!

The final selection is Charles Howell. At the market average of 14/1, he would not be a selection, but Eurobet offer twice those odds. Maybe they are basing their price on Howell's performances in Australia at the start of the season when he finished 67th in the Heineken Classic and 39th in the Greg Norman Holden International. They were his first events of the year and he can be excused for being rusty. Having established himself as one of the most consistent players on the PGA Tour this season, including finishing 2nd in the greens in regulation stats and inside the top-10 in scoring average, he should be far more competitive this time around.

Outright plays:

Ernie Els to win 7/1 @ Camelot

Adam Scott to win 20/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet or Sporting Odds

Charles Howell to win 28/1 e.w. @ Eurobet [5 places option]

72-hole plays:

Stephen Leaney to beat Nathan Green -115 @ Intertops
Green finished last season in style with back-to-back runners-up spots, but he has struggled in the Northern Hemisphere, missing four of his last five cuts, and in this event. He did jump up the leaderboard significantly on Sunday to finish 11th in the Australian PGA, but will struggle to match that finish. Leaney is simply the better player

Peter O'Malley to beat Nathan Green +100 @ Bet365 [2 units]
A missed cut after playing in Spain earlier at the previous weekend is not a problem with O'Malley's form. The extra time off to recover from the jet-lag will only have been beneficial and having finished 7th-11th-7th in the last three Australian Opens, he is much more likely to be on the leaderboard come Sunday night

Gareth Paddison to beat Nathan Green -110 @ Camelot [2 units]
Siding with the New Zealand player who is playing extremely well at the moment. Not only did he shoot all four rounds under par last week to finish 3rd in the Australian PGA in only his 5th Tour start, it had been preceded by a final round 64 to finish 3rd in the Australasian Tour Q-school. Looks good under pressure and could be set for another huge week

Greg Chalmers to beat Peter Lonard -111 @ Sporting Odds
Chalmers won this event three years ago, but it will probably be too much for him to repeat that feat this week. He has had a disappointing year and a decent week last week was spoiled by a final round 77. However, he looks the better prepared player for this event as Lonard as played in each of the last five weeks. O'Malley missed cut with jet-lag last week was understandable, surely Lonard can't fight off the fatigue of the same flight and a busier schedule for much longer

Craig Parry to beat Nick O'Hern -110 @ Surrey
O'Hern was another who flew from Spain to play last week and it may have been one reason for his poor final round that saw him slip out of contention. Another may be that he had missed six straight cuts prior to the no-cut Volvo Masters. With Parry looking in good form last week and at his best on challenging tracks, he should beat O'Hern again

Mid-point update:

Three of the five plays are decided at the cut as Green shoots 80-75   It means victories over him with Leaney by nine shots, O'Malley by seven shots and Paddison by nine shots. In the two remaining plays, Chalmers leads Lonard by two and Parry trails O'Hern by one. Decent position in the outrights. Els bogeyed the last hole to drop out of the lead and is a shot behind Scott Laycock heading into the weekend, while both Scott and Howell improved in the 2nd round to 16th and 41st respectively.

Final update: 4-1-0 and +4.89 units

Split the remaining plays. Chalmers lost to Lonard by six shots and Parry beat O'Hern by seven. A profitable week on the matchups and enough to even cover the near-misses in the outrights.

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Els had a poor first nine and lost touch with the leaders, Stuart Appleby and Scott Laycock. He did find his form later, but it was enough to only secure 3rd place and a loss on the play. The near-misses almost continued with Howell who finished 9th - he improved every round, if only he hadn't opened with a 75 - and Scott who finished 12th, a shot further back. Disappointing blank in the final ANZ Tour event of 2001, but it has been a profitable year overall though

Final update #2: 1-4-0 and -5.46 units

Major fvck-up!!! The matchups that all won at the cut all lost ... the plays were against RICHARD Green   I don't know how I missed it, but I did. I capped these matchups as if the opponent was Nathan Green and paid the penalty. Leaney and Paddison both lost to Richard Green by one shot and O'Malley lost to him by three shots. Rather an ignominious end to the 2001 Australasian Tour for me