Heineken Classic

The last staging of this event in Perth and the organizers have to cope with the threat of a typhoon! So that's where the Crosby weather is this week   Fortunately, it looks as if the winds will not materialize, but the drop in temperature will. It will make an unwelcome home for the visiting European Tour players who have either traveled from the cold of Europe or from the heat of South Africa. Next year it will be Royal Melbourne, the scene of this year's WGC Matchplay.

The conditions should favor the local players who have been playing competitively since the Matchplay and the results from the last two years show a heavy dominance of locals on the leaderboard. It doesn't bode well for Pierre Fulke who may be rusty after returning to Sweden after his Matchplay heroics. Similarly, the weather forecast should lead one to be cautious about the other short-priced favorites such as Michael Campbell whose form is a little shaky, having only just survived the cut at the New Zealand Open or Nick O'Hern who played so well in the Matchplay, but has a very poor record in front of his local crowd here at The Vines. Maybe Bjorn is the one to build on previous successes here, but is too short a price to consider.

Instead, the three are Craig Parry, Greg Turner and Peter Senior. Parry's record in this event is very impressive: he has not been over-par here in 16 of his last 17 rounds and this is a tough course. He has finished in the top-20 in four of his last five visits, including 6th in 1999 and only a final round 79 in 1998 prevented him from gaining a place finish. If the wind & cold become a factor, then Popeye will revel in it.

Turner similarly excels on hard courses and in testing conditions and this shows in his course form which includes a 6th place finish last year. He comes to this event off a 7th place finish at the New Zealand Open, but that should have been a great deal better: one, because he was a selection and two, hefov÷o÷ew}z2s274. He should challenge again strongly this week. The third pick is Peter Senior who shot 66-68 over the weekend to climb to 8th place in the Canon Challenge. He boasts a 13th place finish last year and has already shown on the ANZ Tour that he not yet over the hill even though the odds would suggest that.

Outright plays:

Craig Parry to win 33/1 e.w. @ First Stake

Greg Turner to win 50/1 e.w @ Victor Chandler

Peter Senior to win 100/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler

72-hole plays:

Had as many as 20 matchups that I liked this week   Have whittled it down to the six strongest.

Richard Backwell to beat Michael Long +100 @ DAS [3 units]
A good 8th place finish last week for Japan Tour-based Backwell after an opening round; Long missed the cut. On a course that needs good iron play, Backwell's greens in regulation stats of 88% last week dwarf those of 49% for Long on the ANZ Tour this year

Greg Norman to beat Pierre Fulke -110 @ Surrey [3 units]
Yes, Fulke was 2nd in the Matchplay and yes, he was 7th two years ago, but so was Norman last year and when Norman is sounding upbeat about an event it is time to take note: "I can win this week because I feel much better about myself and my game. I’ve worked very, very hard. I’ve got a little bit more of a desire to get out there and play."

David Smail to beat Justin Rose -111 @ William Hill [2 units]
A back-to-back winner against a back-to-back runner-up. But it is one thing to play well in the country in which you were born and another here in Australia; he missed the cut after shooting 80-75 last year

Greg Turner to beat Brett Rumford -111 @ Ladbrokes [3 units]
8th place was a disappointing finish in an otherwise stellar 2000 for Rumford and he simply has failed to reproduce that form this year, finishing in mid-table at the Victorian Open and missing the cut in New Zealand

Peter Senior to beat Wayne Smith -110 @ Surrey [3 units]
A mid-table finish last week and only three rounds under par from his last twelve; it does not look too promising for Smith this week at least

David Smail to beat Andre Stolz -143 @ Centrebet [3 units]
Very strange pairing! Stolz has finished 30th and missed the cut in his two events in the last eight weeks and on this course he missed the cut with scores of 76 and 78 and in 1999 withdrew after an opening round 77. For his part, on top of being a back-to-back winner, Smail finished 7th last year

Mid-point update:

Just one of the six 72-hole plays is decided at the cut, but despite standing 5-1-0 after 36 holes, it is the only loser that is concluded: Backwell missed the cut by two and lost to Long by four. The other five plays are leading: Senior by one over Smith; Norman by four over Fulke; Smail by two over Rose; Turner by one over Rumford; Smail by one over Stolz. The outright plays look promising with all three selections in the top-15, though none in a place position yet.

3rd round plays:

Fredrik Jacobson to beat Michael Long +100 @ William Hill [2 units]

James Mclean to beat Andrew Tschudin +100 @ Centrebet [2 units]

Craig Parry to beat Jarrod Moseley -120 @ Intertops

3rd round update: 2-1-0 and +1.00 units

Single-shot wins for Jacobson and Parry are just enough, but Mclean shot 86 to fall to last! Needless to say he lost to Tschudin ... by 15 shots. The outright plays still look promising though none has yet reached the top-5. Parry moved up to 7th, two shots out of a place finish, and Turner lies one shot further back in 11th place. Senior fell out of the equation after a 3rd round 73 to lie in 31st place.

Will have 4th round plays this evening.

4th round plays:

Robert Karlsson to beat Jarrod Moseley +130 @ Intertops

Dean Robertson to beat Peter Lonard +115 @ Intertops

Might have some more when DAS release their lines

Final update: 1-1 and +0.15 units for the day; 7-4 and +5.85 units for the week

Split the final round plays as Moseley shot the low round of the day to beat Karlsson by three shots, but Robertson did emerge an easy five-shot winner over Lonard to secure a small profit on the day. Disappointment in the 72-hole plays that had stood 5-0-0 at the cut: Senior had a weekend to forget and finished 3 shots behind Wayne Smith. The other four won though: Norman beat Fulke by two, Smail by ten over Rose, Turner by one over Rumford and Smail by thirteen over Stolz. Another profitable week on the Australasian Tour

Update on outright plays: 0-3 and -3.00 units

Second successive blank after such a great start to the year! Turner and Parry failed to make any headway on the final day and fell to 11th and 16th respectively. Senior finished in 48th position. Disappointing result, but at least the first two always had a chance and at decent odds.