New Zealand Open

After a five-year absence the New Zealand Open returns to The Grange and to the sponsors' delight, so does Michael Campbell, the defending champion. The field does not boast some of its international flavor of five years ago - as well as more of the leading Australians, Scott Hoch and a young Mike Weir were present on the last occasion - but Campbell is a big enough draw in himself.

That said, this course is rather different to last year's Paraparaumu course, with narrow tree-lined fairways and accuracy rather than length definitely being the premium this week. The 1995 top-3 of Peter O'Malley, Scott Hoch and Frank Nobilo is testimony to the type of golfer who will perform well on this course. That does not bode well for Brett Rumford who is strongly fancied by the line-makers. Nor does the fact that Campbell's wife gave birth to their second child just before Christmas. Player's performances have been known to dip somewhat after the birth of a child.

Instead, the three outright plays will involve two former winners of this event and a rank outsider, at least in the bookies' eyes. The first is Peter O'Malley who won this event on this course in 1995 and finished last year in very good form, though he challenged more often than he won. He has excellent accuracy stats - driving accuracy and greens in regulation - and looks far better value than Campbell at 2/1.

The second is New Zealander Greg Turner who won this event in 1989 and 1997. Like O'Malley, his better stats are the accuracy ones and will revel in playing in his home country, while not being constantly in the spotlight. A solid player on the European Tour, he looks good in this field and should improve on his 8th place finish last year. The rank outsider is David Smail, a compatriot of Turner's. He plies his trade on the Japan Tour where he has not missed in cut in his last twelve tournaments, securing three top-10s and 3rd place finish in the Tours Players Championship along the way. Like the other picks, accuracy is the focal point of his game, he ranks 72nd in driving distance and 22nd in greens in regulation, and finished 11th on this course in 1995. Odds of 100/1 are certainly not justified, though most layers do not even cite him!

Outright plays:

Peter O'Malley to win e/w 14/1 @ William Hill

Greg Turner to win e/w 14/1 @ William Hill

David Smail to win e/w 100/1 @ William Hill

72-hole plays:

Andrew Bonhomme to beat Brett Rumford +140 @ Centrebet
Opposing the big-hitting Rumford as his length will be of little use this week; Bonhomme has a decent accuracy game, but his strength is on the greens. Attractive at that price

Kenny Druce to beat David Bransdon -111 @ Centrebet
From the few tournament stats that are available on the ANZ Tour site, these players appear polar opposites in terms of accuracy: Druce has hit 73% of fairways and 71% of greens in regulation; Bransdon has hit 54% of fairways and 63% of greens

Tony Carolan to beat Adrian Percey +100 @ DAS [2 units]
Neither player has stats to brag about, but Carolan has much the better form. He has finishes of 18th, mc and 21st on the Tour so far this season which ranks better than Percey's 38th, mc, 48th, mc. Carolan has also played this course before, making the cut in 1995 at least

Mid-point update:

Definitely a case of good news, bad news. The bad news is the 72-hole plays. Two of the three were decided at the cut and both were losses. Rumford missed the cut in 92nd place, but so did Bonhomme two shots further back, while Carolan had a poor first day and never recovered; he missed the cut by two shots, the same margin by which he was trailing Percey at the time. At least the third pick is still alive: Druce just made the cut, though he still has six shots to make up on Bransdon.

The good news is the outright plays. 100/1 shot David Smail is leading the tournament, so I wouldn't be too upset if inclement weather cancelled the last two rounds   With Peter O'Malley lying one shot back in 2nd, could this be a 2nd successive 1-2 on the ANZ Tour? To complete the picture, Greg Turner had a fine 66 on day two to jump to 21st and six shots behind Smail.

Hope to have some 3rd round plays later.

3rd round update:

Druce halved the deficit to Bransdon in the remaining 72-hole play, while Smail increased his lead to 3 shots O'Malley dropped to 10th alongside Turner, so the second week in a row it could be a very profitable week with the outrights on the ANZ Tour.

4th round plays:

Michael Long to beat Peter Cliff -118 @ Centrebet

Martin Pettigrew to beat Andrew Tschudin +100 @ DAS [3 units]

Final update: 1-0-1 and +1.00 units for the day; 2-2-1 and -1.00 units for the week

A good day to finish a great tournament! Long beat Cliff by five shots, though it is a little disappointing that Pettigrew surrendered his one-shot lead on the last to only tie with Tschudin. But with the dead heat rather than ties lose rule at DAS, no harm done. Small loss on the week with the matchups, but more than made up for with the outrights!

Update on outright plays: 1-2 and +60.50 units

Smail hung on to secure his maiden victory and defeat Gatehouse and the experienced trio of Campbell, Alker and Chapman by two shots   Neither Turner or O'Malley made much progress on the day, finishing 7th and 12th respectively, but of little concern on such a profitable day.