Holden Australian Open

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Peter O'Malley to win 33/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
O'Malley just doesn't win often enough to be a serious contender for this title, but at this price he is a viable alternative to Allenby who is just too short at 10/1. In fact, O'Malley did win his last Australasian Tour event, the Clearwater Classic, in March, but he can normally be counted upon to be consistent rather than a title-winner. Having flown from Australia just to compete in the Volvo Masters where he finished 4th, he should have confidence in his game and it will be suited to the short, but demanding Victoria course.

Geoff Ogilvy to win 40/1 e.w. @ Bet365, BetInternet, Victor Chandler and Paddy Power
Basically, Ogilvy is a member of Victoria Golf Club. With the exception of the 1999 Victoria Open which was played on this course, his finishes in that event have been 12th, 4th and 17th. The 1999 Australian PGA Championship was played here and he finished 7th. Now that he has two years of playing on the PGA Tour behind him and with recent finishes of 6th in the Canadian Open and 4th in the Michelob Championship, he will be relishing the prospect of having a considerable local advantage for this prestigious event.

Rod Pampling to win 66/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Was far an automatic choice until this price was found - he is widely available at half these odds. He does have good course form with top-10 finishes in the 1997 and 1998 Victorian Opens and finished 17th in the 1999 PGA Championship as well. Allied with a strong finish to the PGA Tour season - 4th in the Tampa Bay Classic and top-30 finishes in six of his last seven events - he could repeat his top-5 finish in this event last year at the Grand.

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Peter Lonard to beat Aaron Baddeley -115 @ Five Dimes
Opposing Baddeley to has been playing well on the Buy.com Tour, but has had a very poor record in Australia over the past two years: since he won the Greg Norman International in February 2001, he has failed to finish in the top-10 in any of his subsequent seven events and has missed the cut in his last two ANZ Tour events. He also has a poor record on this course - 66th, missed cut and 11th - and so is a false price. Lonard has an excellent record on this course, beating Baddeley on the three times they have competed together, and comes off victory with Rich Beem in the Hyundai Team Matches last week.

Craig Parry to beat Aaron Baddeley -110 @ BetInternet and BlueSq
Parry can boast a top-3 finish in the 1999 Australian PGA Championship on this course, top-15 finishes in all six ANZ Tour events that he has played in the past year and a top-5 finish on the PGA Tour in his last start. Too consistent to be beaten by Baddeley.

Adam Scott to beat Aaron Baddeley +100 @ Victor Chandler
While Scott cannot claim to have any course experience, he does come into this event off three top-10 finishes in his last four European Tour events. In form and with a good price, this is worthy of completing the Baddeley treble.

Stephen Leaney to beat Rich Beem -139 @ Centrebet
Setting up the Beem treble as he will struggle on his first taste of Australian golf. His attacking play off the tee will not be suited to the hard, fast conditions at Victoria and particularly on the greens. He missed the cut on his visit to the European Tour and similar result is expected this week despite last week's victory in California with Peter Lonard. Outside that victory last week, he had failed to secure a single top-25 finish since his purple patch in August. Local player Leaney has been struggling since he won the German Masters, but did win a local event at the weekend and has an extremely good record on this course.

Peter O'Malley to beat Rich Beem -133 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Siding with an outright selection against a rock-solid go-against.

Peter Lonard to beat Rich Beem -110 @ BetInternet [4.5 units]
A stated above, Lonard has good form on this course and comes off a victory last week. Can only see Beem struggling this week.

Craig Parry to beat Stephen Leaney -120 @ SkyBet
Great record on this course as a local player, but Leaney is rather a player is great when he's good, but when he's bad ... His last ten starts have yielded a victory and one other top-10 finish, but no other top-20 finishes and two missed cuts. Just siding with the more consistent Parry who finished 3rd here in 1999.

Andre Stolz to beat Shane Tait -140 @ Five Dimes
Tait may have an extremely impressive record on this course - three top-10 finishes in 1998-99 - but Stolz can also claim to have matched him on one of his two visits. The last time Victoria was used was three years ago, so maybe more current form is more important and in this regard Stolz has dominated Tait. In the past year, Stolz has beaten Tait without reply and in his last four ANZ Tour events he has finished 1st, 1st, 6th, 2nd!

Final update:

Matchups: 2-6-0; -12.92 units

Lonard/Baddeley LOST by 7
Parry/Baddeley LOST (players tied)
Scott/Baddeley LOST by 3
Leaney/Beem LOST by 12
O'Malley/Beem LOST by 8
Lonard/Beem LOST by 7
Parry/Leaney WON by 12
Stolz/Tait WON by 10 (at the cut)

Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units

O'Malley 20th
Ogilvy 10th
Pampling 30th

This event descended into farce with the cancellation of the first round and while my results may not have been any better had they continued (though they were looking good at the time), I had capped this event on the basis that it would be a hard, fast course with par an extremely good score ... not suited to Beem at all. In the end, 12-under-par for 54 holes won and the course played rather different to what was expected. Horrible result on the event!