MasterCard Masters

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Stuart Appleby to win 12/1 e.w. @ UKBetting and Heathorns
But for an opening 74 when he was feeling ill, Appleby would have won last week's Australian PGA Championship and spared us the controversy of the second shared title in three weeks. With top-20 finishes in each of his three previous visits to Huntingdale, including one top-5, he looks to be perfectly prepared for a decent finale to a memorable season.

Craig Parry to win 14/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
It certainly became a memorable season for Parry once he won the WGC NEC Invitational. In his last starts he has finished 4th in the Buick Challenge, 2nd in the Australian Open and 19th in the Australian PGA Championship and while that may be encouraging, it is nothing to his record at Huntingdale. He has collected three gold jackets in the last ten years and has had a number of runners-up finishes as well. His record on this Tour has always been impressive even when he was struggling on the PGA Tour and Parry looks set to a feature on the leaderboards this week.

Peter O'Malley to win 22/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
While not winning this event, O'Malley can also boast an excellent record at Huntingdale. He lost in a playoff to Peter Lonard in 1997 and has followed that with finishes of 10th, 12th, 7th and 3rd. After a top-20 finish in the controversial Australian Open, he improved in every round last week to finish 8th and while he cannot catch Parry at the top of the Australasian Tour Order of Merit, another solid performance this week will consolidate his position in 2nd place.

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Robert Allenby to beat Aaron Baddeley +100 @ Victor Chandler
Opposing Baddeley again, or least while he is opposed with such A-grade players. Had a disappointing weekend last week compounded by a irksome failure to tap the ball in the hole from a couple of inches. Should be in contention this week, but his record on this course is not special, particularly when compared to Allenby who has six top-10 finishes from nine visits. Will take Allenby at this price and presume any jetlag will be short-lived.

Peter Lonard to beat Aaron Baddeley -111 @ BetandWin
Would normally avoid siding with last week's champion, but it was such an anti-climax - and certainly in comparison to when Lonard holed the 50-foot putt on the last hole to force the playoff - that I don't think that rule is particularly applicable this week. With an excellent course record - four top-10s including a win (1997) in the last six years - and a desire to keep playing until the very end - he currently stands 52nd in the World Rankings and the top-50 are invited to the 2003 Masters - Lonard should certainly finish in the top-10.

Peter Lonard to beat Peter O'Malley -120 @ SkyBet
Hedging one of the outrights. With a top-10 finish expected from Lonard, then there is every chance that this will be a winner if O'Malley doesn't secure the place win.

Tony Carolan to beat Ty Tryon -154 @ BetandWin [3 units]
Big price, but I don't see Tryon even making the cut this week. He's played seven PGA Tour events this year, making the cut once. H's played one Buy.com Tour event and missed the cut. He doesn't travel well either. He's played two European Tour events and missed the cut both times and two Japan Tour events and made the cut just once. This is his first time in Australia, so it is very easy to side with a player who has made all six cuts on this Tour in the last two months and secured three top-10 finishes along the way.

John Senden to beat Brett Rumford -125 @ Five Dimes
Opposing Rumford who has had a frustrating year. After 16 missed cuts in 28 events to lose his European Tour Card, he then missed out on regaining it at the Qualifying School by a single shot. He did fly straight back to compete in last week's Australian PGA Championship and finished 39th. After a solid year on the PGA Tour, Senden has finished 30th and 19th in the last two Australasian Tour events and while he cannot match Rumford's course form, he does look much better prepared for this week's event.

Mid-point update:

Allenby/Baddeley Leads by 5
Lonard/Baddeley Leads by 8
Lonard/O'Malley WON by 9
Carolan/Tryon Trails by 2
Senden/Rumford Trails by 2

Appleby 42nd
Parry 10th
O'Malley mc

Could still be a good event. The only match decided at the cut is a winner and while Baddeley made the cut on the mark, Allenby and Lonard have healthy leads to defend over the weekend. It remains for at least one of Carolan, Senden and Parry to perform over the last 36 holes to turn this into a profitable event.

Final update:

Matchups: 5-0-0; +9.00 units

Allenby/Baddeley WON by 3
Lonard/Baddeley WON by 4
Carolan/Tryon WON by 1
Senden/Rumford WON by 9

Outrights: 1-2; -3.66 units

Appleby 14th
Parry 5th

A nice way to end the Australasian Tour ... another sweep! Fortunate to win by one in the double-play as the tie would have meant a lost wager at BetandWin and Baddeley produced a great comeback over the weekend, but not good enough in matchups against A-grade players. Parry never threatened to get into the playoff, though he only finished three shots short, but with the reduced payoff from the tie for 5th, he may as well have finished four shots short.