Clearwater Classic

Outright plays (1.5 units):

David Smail to win 10/1 e.w. @ SkyBet and Five Dimes
Arguably the best player in this field outside New Zealand, but certainly the best one when playing in his homeland. It is a long time ago that he was a 100/1 winning selection for the New Zealand Open and those odds will not often be repeated, but he has an excellent chance to pick up another title this week. He was a two-time winner on the Japan Tour in the last few months of 2002 and has shown good early 2003 season form with a 4th place finish in the Johnnie Walker Classic in his last outing. Justifiable short odds.

Nick O'Hern to win 14/1 e.w. @ Centrebet
The extra place at shorter odds elsewhere was tempting because O'Hern is far from a convincing winner of tournament. His only Tour victory came in the 1999 Coolum Classic, but he has become a very consistent player, particularly in Australasian events. His 38th place finish in the Johnnie Walker Classic was the only time in his last seven starts that he has finished outside the top-20 and he can boast similar consistency in New Zealand. He finished 5th last year and has finished in the top-10 in three of his last four starts in this country. Should be a strong contender for a place finish and maybe he could even sneak a win ... with a little help from the rest of the field!

Andrew McLardy to win 33/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Was hoping for slightly bigger odds, but can't find much value this week so will take SkyBet's offering for McLardy. His form in Australasia is good and he did finish strongly last week to end in 6th place, plus he did finish 5th on this course last year. It is has been a very encouraging season on the Southern Africa Tour and he does stand a decent chance of sneaking a top-5 finish here.

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Brett Rumford to beat Steve Collins -125 @ Expekt [3 units]
Simply opposing Collins who has missed his last two cuts, missed the cut on this course last year and was a lowly 62nd in the New Zealand Open in January with every round over par. The 5th place finish in the MasterCard Masters in December is very much the exception rather than the rule.

Greg Turner to beat Brett Rumford -115 @ Five Dimes
Turner has now retired from full-time professional golf to devote more time to his young family and his course management business. The effect has been impressive with top-20 finishes in four of his last events as he now plays golf only in this part of the world. Has a very impressive record in New Zealand, including being a two-winner of his home Open and should easily finish ahead of Rumford who looked destined to make the cut, but only finish mid-table.

Greg Turner to beat Tjaart Van Der Walt -118 @ Expekt
Siding with Turner against Van Der Walt who is playing well and did finish in the top-10 last year, but is rather less consistent. This match will survive until Sunday, but Turner should be able to exploit home advantage.

Trevor Dodds to beat Edward Fryatt -115 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
A finish in 13th place last year and a made cut last week is even to side with Dodds against a very poor Fryatt who has never played on this course or in New Zealand as a whole and has missed both cuts this year as he tries to cope with life outside the PGA Tour.

Scott Gardiner to beat Eddie Lee -105 @ Five Dimes
Will take on the teenager Lee at these odds. He made a lot of headlines when he won the Maekyung LG Fashion event on the Asian PGA Tour last May as an amateur. He did rather lose his form later in the year and bar the 5th place that he shared with Gardiner in the New Zealand Open in January, there has been little sign of a return of his earlier form. He also missed the cut in this event last year.

Andre Stolz to beat Joe Ogilvie -130 @ Five Dimes
Ogilvie has been in impressive form this year with a 2nd place finish in the Travelex Classic on the Canadian Tour before his win last week. But he has never played on this course or in New Zealand and opposing last week's winner is usually profitable strategy. Stolz was considered for the outrights after finishes of 2nd and 6th in his last two events, so will gladly side with him one time this week.

Peter O'Malley to beat David Smail -118 @ Expekt
Basically a hedge play. If Smail finishes outside the top-5 and fails to earn a return on the outright play, he should finish behind O'Malley who is back in form, won this event last year and has an very impressive record in New Zealand events.

Mid-point update:

Rumford/Collins Leads by 1
Turner/Rumford LOST by 6
Turner/Van der Walt LOST by 5
Dodds/Fryatt WON by 3
Gardiner/Lee WON by 2
Stolz/Ogilvie Leads by 2
O'Malley/Smail WON by 17

Smail mc
O'Hern 28th
McLardy 40th

Hopefully the two remaining matchups can lock up the profit from this event. They have only narrow leads, but it is generally a good display from the matchup selections with the sole exception of Nobilo. Rather glad to have taken the hedge play against Smail as well! But with O'Hern and McLardy only and four and five shots respectively outside the top-5, maybe there can be some return on the outrights as well.

Final update:

Matchups: 4-3-0; +0.26 units

Rumford/Collins LOST by 1
Stolz/Ogilvie WON by 8

Outrights: 0-3; -4.50 units

O'Hern 5th
McLardy 41st

One shot. The difference between a return on one of the outrights, Nick O'Hern, and the difference between a loss and a dead-heat on one of the three-unit matchup plays. Close to making this a break-even event. Will have to do better though when the Australasian Tour resumes in full in November.