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Heineken Classic Outright play (0.75 units):
Stephen Leaney to win 50/1 e.w. @ Bet365
This price is much too big so will jump on it early. He had a gentle warm-up in
Singapore last week to finish mid-table, but his primary focus will be these
co-sanctioned events in Australia. He finished 6th last year, having been in the
top-3 entering the final round and has an excellent record when starting his
season. In the last six years he has finished 2nd, 17th, mc (5th the following
week), 3rd, 6th and 1st. Too high a price for a multiple-winner on both the
Australasian and European Tours.
Adding (0.75 units):
Ernie Els to win 4/1 @ Easybets
Hoped for 4/1 and finally found it. He will surely be tired playing his fourth
in event in four weeks in three different continents, but it was only the very
poor condition of the Laguna National greens that prevented him from cruising to
victory last week. There will be no such worries about the greens at Royal
Melbourne. He is the most in-form player on the planet at the moment and by
quite some distance, averaging 317 yards on his drives and hitting 84% of his
greens over the past three weeks. He is defending his title against a field
without any consistent title winners. Fatigue will be the greatest worry, but at
least he is due to have a rest after this week before teeing up in the Johnnie
Walker Classic.
Adding (0.75 units):
Greg Norman to finish in the top-five 8/1 @ SkyBet
Norman's game may have been in decline since he lost the 1996 Masters to Nick
Faldo, but his record in his home country remains as consistent as ever. Not
only did he finished 6th here last year and 4th last month in the Australian PGA
Championship, in his last 12 Australasian Tour events, he has missed one cut,
finished 16th twice and finishes in the top-10 on the other nine occasions. He
hasn't picked up a title since winning his own event in 1998, so the place
option looks the best strategy. Five Dimes have yet to offer place lines, but
are expected to offer 7/1.
Matchup plays (0.75 units unless stated):
Steve Webster to beat Arjun Atwal -111 @ BetandWin
Don't expect this one to last to the weekend. Atwal has a very poor record in
Australia, missing six cuts from eight starts with his best place of 37th six
years ago. Webster does blow hot and cold, but should have a much better chance
of playing at the weekend.
Stephen Leaney to beat Paul Casey -110 @ Bet365
Opposing Casey as this is his first time on an Australian course. He missed the
cut on his first visit to South Africa, but Australian take even more getting
used to. Straightforward to side with an outright pick here.
Peter O'Malley to beat Paul Casey -118 @ Expekt
Against Casey's no course form, O'Malley has an excellent history at Royal
Melbourne. He was runner-up last year and in the 1989 Coca-Cola Classic on this
course and has finished in the top-10 in four of his last five visits. Enough
for me. Also -118 @ Easybets, but ties lose.
Richard Green to beat Brian Davis +100 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Also opposing Davis on the basis of having never played the course before. His
record in Australia is also unimpressive: a best finish of 23rd (in 1997) in
five previous visits. Coming off a missed cut in the Dunhill Championship (as a
outright selection!), he looks opposable, particularly with Green who has course
form and finished 5th in his last ANZ Tour event (MasterCard Masters) last
month.
Steen Tinning to beat Brian Davis -115 @ Intertops
Also opposing Davis with Tinning, who has decent course form (even dating back
to the 1988 World Cup which was played on this course) and is in very good form.
He has played five times in the last three months, finishing in the top-10 three
times and winning the Madrid Open. Might even repeat his top-5 finish of two
years ago.
Steen Tinning to beat Jean-Francois Lucquin -118 @ Expekt [1.5 units]
Lucquin has an impressive record in Asia - top-30 in the two co-sanctioned
events at the end of 2002 and 10th last week in Singapore - but he has never
played in Australia where the course conditions are very different. Easy to
oppose him with Tinning for this week, at least.
Soren Kjeldsen to beat Bradley Hughes -111 @ BetandWin
Kjeldsen made the cut last week in his first start of the season, but nothing
more, and did the same on this course last year. If he can repeat that feat he
will easily defeat Hughes who had a torrid time on the PGA Tour last year.
Playing in Australia for the first time since 1999, he looks one to oppose.
Peter Lonard to beat Paul Lawrie -125 @ BlueSq
There is no doubting that Lawrie's form has improved considerably in the past
three months and he was involved in the six-man playoff at the Dunhill
Championship, but his record in Australia is very poor. In four starts, he has
missed the cut three times and finished 58th in the 2000 Heineken Classic. With
no course form, he is opposable against the leading Australian players such as
Lonard who has won his last two starts on this Tour. He wasn't considered for
the outrights as he played in the Phoenix Open last week, but he should finish
high enough to easily beat Lawrie.
Greg Norman to beat Paul Lawrie -111 @ Expekt
Therefore straightforward that Lawrie is also opposed with Norman who is an
outright selection because of his very consistent record in his home country.
Mid-point update:
Webster/Atwal Leads by 2
Leaney/Casey LOST by 13
O'Malley/Casey LOST by 14
Green/Davis Leads by 4
Tinning/Davis LOST by 2
Tinning/Lucquin WON by 7
Kjeldsen/Lucquin WON by 13
Lonard/Lawrie Leads by 3
Norman/Lawrie All Square
Leaney mc
Els 37th
Norman 37th
Not too great an event at this stage. All three matches that are trailing are
decided at the cut, so the matchup situation is likely to get worse and the
outright selections are not in contention. Looks like a break-even event unless
Norman can improve over the weekend.
Final update:
Matchups: 5-4-0; +1.18 units
Webster/Atwal WON by 7
Green/Davis Tied (LOST)
Lonard/Lawrie WON by 14
Norman/Lawrie WON by 6
Outrights: 1-2; +1.50 units
Els 1st
Norman 25th
A much better result than expected. Els overcame a deficit of ten shots over the
last 36 holes to edge out Faldo and Lonard. Just a fantastic performance. Decent
performance on the matchups after the cut, just a little frustrating that the
ties lost at Sportingbet and Sporting Odds. Still got out of jail on this event
though!
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