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Johnnie Walker Classic Outright plays (0.75
units): Robert Allenby to win 20/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
and BlueSq
Avoiding the South Africans who rightly head the market this week and will hope
for a strong home effort instead. This is Allenby's first start in Australia
this year, but he did put in a strong performance in the Sony Open in Hawaii
last month. It was his fourth top-6 finish in five Tour events spanning the New
Year and two of those events were on the Australasian Tour. He is not a player
to back in putting contests, but on a challenging track he should go close.
Adam Scott to win 33/1 e.w. @ BlueSq
Missed the cut last week and the odds reflect that. It was his first start of
the year though, so some rustiness was to be expected. He also had a poor
performance on this course last year, but that was also his first start of the
year and he did bounce back for a top-15 finish the following week (he had been
in the top-3 in-running). After closing last season with five consecutive top-10
finishes, including two runners-up spots, he is too good a player for these odds
and should bounce back again in the second week of his season. Nick Faldo
to finish in the top-five 10/1 @ Five
Dimes
Twice a winner of this title (1990 and 1993), Faldo is another who prospers on
the tougher courses. He could have won the Heineken Classic around Royal
Melbourne a fortnight ago, but faltered on the final day. Nevertheless, it
continued his run of excellent form in Australia. Apart from two missed cuts in
the 2001 season, he has finished no worse than 16th in his last ten starts on
Australian soil. His ability to hold onto the lead in Melbourne does point
however to the place-only option being the best strategy this week. He is
competitive again, but he has not won a tournament since 1997.
 Matchup
plays (0.75 units): Gary Evans to beat Ian Woosnam -113 @ Pinnacle
Not expecting a good week from Woosie. He hasn't played in Australia since he
missed the cut in the 1999 Heineken Classic and in three of his last five
seasons he has missed the cut in his first event. He ended 2002 in good form,
but this is strange week to begin his 2002 season as next week's event is
co-sanctioned with the Asian PGA Tour. Having never played this course either, he
is opposed with a player who has played well in the last two weeks in Australia
and did play in this event last year. Soren Hansen to beat Ian Woosnam -111
@ BetandWin
Hansen is another who has played two events in Australia so far and so is much
better prepared for this event. They were both top-30 finishes and a repeat
should be more than enough to win this match. Soren Kjeldsen to beat Ian
Woosnam -118 @ Expekt
By the same measure, Kjeldsen should be a stronger fancy to beat Woosnam. His
Australian starts have yielded a 4th place and a 12th place finish in the last
two weeks and he finished in the top-20 last year. He is another consistent,
acclimatised player. Steve Webster to beat Paul McGinley -111 @ BetandWin
Would have liked to oppose McGinley more, but sticking with just this match.
This is his first start of the new season and he certainly looked very tired at
the end of last season. It was no surprise that his form dipped after the Ryder
Cup. Again opposing a 2003 debutant with a player who has played in the last two
weeks - two mid-table finishes - and last year on this course - again a
mid-table finish. Nick Faldo to beat Jarrod Moseley -110 @ BlueSq
[-111 @ BetandWin]
Should be a good match between the resurgent Faldo and the local man, Moseley.
Both should be contenders this week, but Faldo should have the edge. In the two
Australasian Tour events that he has played in the last two months, he has
beaten Moseley both times and he beat him on this course last year as well.
David Lynn to beat Kevin Na -111 @ BetandWin
Na was a very welcome 40/1 winner two months ago, but that was in Malaysia and
golf on a tough Australian course is quite different. He has never played
competitively in this country until this week and finished a lowly 55th in the
Singapore Masters three weeks ago in his last outing. Lynn finished 30 places
ahead of him that week and has since secured a top-5 finish in the Heineken
Classic and made the weekend last week, which should be more than Na will
achieve this week. Peter O'Malley to beat Lian-Wei Zhang -111 @ BetandWin
Opposing Zhang for similar reasons to Na. He won the Singapore Masters three
weeks ago - the only person to finish ahead of Els this year - but his record in
Australia is very poor. He has missed the cut four times in seven starts,
including last year on this course, with just one top-20 finish. O'Malley has
been struggling this year, but he is much too good a player to remain in this
slump. He finished ahead of Zhang last year and will surely resume his
impressive home form sooner or later.
Mid-point update: Evans/Woosnam
Trails by 3
Hansen/Woosnam LOST (Hansen withdrew after 1st round)
Kjeldsen/Woosnam Trails by 2
Webster/McGinley LOST by 9
Faldo/Moseley Trails by 1
Lynn/Na Leads by 6
O'Malley/Zhang WON by 5 Allenby 2nd
Scott mc
Faldo 49th Not a great start to the event. Behind or already down in all three
matches against Woosnam and Els is scintillating form. Great round by Allenby
today, but a backward nine of 29 and Els has a four-shot lead. Looks like
Allenby will need a lot of assistance if this is to be a profitable event.
Final update: Matchups: 2-5-0; -2.72 units Evans/Woosnam LOST by 1
Kjeldsen/Woosnam LOST by 1
Faldo/Moseley LOST by 3
Lynn/Na WON by 4 Outrights: 1-2; -1.35 units Allenby 4th
Faldo 46th Looked like being a profitable event until two hours from the end.
Allenby had been 3rd but bogeyed the 17th hole to end in a tie for 4th place
with four others, but more frustrating was Woosnam's four birdies in his last
five holes to deny Evans and Kjeldsen (where ties would not lost) by a single
shot. Great display of golf by Els, yet again.
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