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New Zealand Open
Outright plays (0.75 units):
Michael Campbell to win 5/1 @
Coral
Quite a gulf in class between Campbell and the rest of the field and this has
can be seen by his previous performances in his home Open. In the last three
years he has finished 1st, 2nd and 2nd. This also a rather weak field, even for
the New Zealand Open. Last year appearance of Tiger Woods (he finished 6th) was
an exception, but it was won by Craig Parry and Australia's best usually compete
this week. Cambo has decided to concentrate on the PGA Tour this season and
provided he doesn't take this event too lightly - hard to see as it is his home
Open - this should be a useful workout before heading to the States.
David Smail to win 14/1 e.w. @
UKBetting
Smail held off Campbell two years to lift the title as a 100/1 selection at the
time  He has since shown his
pedigree by winning the week later as well (plus finishing 2nd a further week
on) and on the Japan Tour where he picked up two titles in the last two months
of 2002 to finish 5th on the Money List. Any semblance of that form should reap
a top-5 finish and he may again catch Campbell off his guard.
Andre Stolz to win 66/1 e.w. @
Stan James
Large price for a player who was a winner on the Australasian Tour last year. It
may have only been the Victorian Open which did not attract the players of
previous years (a change in schedule from January to October), but he followed
that with 6th in the Queensland Open, 2nd in the New South Wales Open and 16th
in the Australian PGA Championship. No great form in this event at Paraparaumu
Beach, but this is a weak field and the winner of the 2000 Tour Championship is
very capable of a high finish here.
Matchup plays (0.75 units unless stated):
Andrew Bonhomme to beat Brad Lamb -111 @ BetandWin
Quite difference in class between these two players. Bonhomme secured two top-3
finishes on the Australasian Tour last year, albeit in the lesser events, while
Lamb missed five of eight cuts last year, including his debut in the New Zealand
Open. Bonhomme finished in the top-20.
Brett Rumford to beat Marcus Cain -133 @ Centrebet
[1.5 units]
Gulf in class here as well. Rumford may have struggled on the European Tour last
year - he failed to retain his Card - but he did manage four top-40 finishes in
five ANZ Tour events last year, whereas Cain missed the cut in eight of 14 ANZ
Tour events. Two top-20 finishes in three New Zealand Open starts is also
supportive for Rumford.
Bradley Heaven to beat Andrew Webster -111 @ BetandWin
Siding with a University of Toledo amateur who has an impressive record in this
event. In 1996, he finished as low amateur as a 15-year-old and returned last
year to finish 10th. Bar two top-5 finishes in Victorian events in October,
Webster has had difficulty in making the cut each week on this Tour and failed
to do so in his previous New Zealand Open start.
Brendan Jones to beat Grant Waite -125 @ Centrebet
Siding with a player on top of his a game against another who is struggling.
Waite finished outside the top-150 on the PGA Tour for the first time since 1994
and so lost full playing rights. It means that he will return to compete in this
event, which he won in 1992, for the first time since 1997, but his thoughts
will surely be elsewhere. His entry was with the proviso that he did not get a
late call-up to Sony Open in Hawaii, so the tournament organisers secured an air
booking with the help of the event sponsors United Airlines on the basis if he
does not have a start in Hawaii he will obligate to fly home. Against a player
who won once and finished 2nd twice in the last few months of 2002 on the Japan
Tour, he looks ill-prepared.
Adding:
Michael Long to beat Frank Nobilo -108 @ Five
Dimes
Five Dimes have just added odds for this event and this matchup appeals. Both
had very poor seasons on the PGA Tour and Nobilo hasn't played since ending his
campaign with four straight missed cuts. Just one top-10 finish (10th in 2002
WorldCom Classic) since the At&T in February 2001 shows the collapse of his
game, based around a crippling back injury. He cannot play three or four weeks
in a row at the moment and retirement looks likely. Long is a former winner of
this title (1996) and at least did return down under to compete on the
Australasian Tour at the end of 2002. He put in decent performances in the
Australian Open and Australian PGA Championship and should beat a hampered
Nobilo.
Five Dimes have also priced up the Jones/Waite match above @
-122 with ties push rather than a dead heat.
Mid-point update:
Bonhomme/Lamb WON by 9
Rumford/Cain Leads by 4
Heaven/Webster WON by 9
Jones/Waite Leads by 1
Long/Nobilo WON by 6
Campbell 11th
Smail 5th
Stolz 23rd
Very nice start to the 2003 Australasian Tour season! Three wins
in the bag and the remaining two are ahead. Would be very disappointing if the
double-play on Rumford were reversed over the weekend. All three players in the
hunt after 36 holes, so should get a return from at least one of them.
Final update:
Matchups: 4-0-1; +3.62 units
Rumford/Cain WON by 13
Jones/Waite All Square (dead heat)
Outrights: 0-3; -2.25 units
Campbell 9th
Smail 17th
Stolz 35th
Profitable event, but expected more from the outright selections
over the weekend. Has been a story told too often this week!
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