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Spread Picks -
Australasian Tour |
Tipster: Andy |
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Australian
PGA Championship |
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3 Bets, 3 Losses, -18.25. Been a very poor run now for
weeks, looking forward to a new season and a return to better results.
Sell Adam Scott over Nick O'Hern R1 18H MB at 3.5 with
Cantor Spreadfair for 0.25 Pts M/U 19, Loss 3.88 Pts
Scott has gained a reputation over the last few years that he doesn't apply as
much effort to his end of year Australian events than he does on the US Tour and
past results confirm this. If we take the 13 events played since 03' he has 4
top 10's, 2 missed cuts and an average FP of 30 which isn't great. Compare this
to O'Hern who in 25 starts in the same time has had 12 top 10's and is the
defending course champion. H2H's show a 10-3 O'Hern lead whereas only
considering overseas events the score is completely different. Scott should be
favourite but on known stats not as heavy a favourite as he is priced today.
Buy Stuart Appleby over Rory Sabbatini R1 18H MB at 0.5 with
Cantor Spreadfair for 0.25 Pts M/U -40, Loss 10.12 Pts
Sabbatini makes his Australian debut with the aid of appearance money and is
placed in a marquee three ball with Appleby and Lonard. Appleby, like O'Hern,
has great course stats with recent finishes of 3/8/8 and finished 3rd in the
Mastercard Masters two weeks ago. His tour form over 5 seasons shows 20 top 20
finishes in 21 starts so on Australian soil he has to be considered a clear
favourite even although World Rankings suggest otherwise.
Sell Nick Flanagan over Paul Gow R1 18H MB at 2 with
Sporting Index
BetHiLo for 0.25 Pts M/U 19, Loss 4.25 Pts
Flanagan is a better player than Gow, but course form, although not as important
as current, is so damning in the argument for Gow that he has to backed with a
2pt start. 4th last year whilst Flanagan was shooting 74 73 to miss his 2nd
course cut, Gow, in 7 course starts has made every cut producing 4 Top 20's in
that time. His current form shows a poor run on the PGA tour and this is
probably the reason for the price. Given the course stats though, Flanagan
shouldn't be 2-5 favourite.
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STATS: Event In-Running
