Perth International

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It is an absolute tragedy that the Valderrama golf event has been cancelled this season as it is my favourite event of the year. Not neccessarily due to finding the winner, more that when that course got tough it really got tough, and after enough birdie-fests it was always a delight to see the players work very hard for results.

Nevertheless, the 'replacement' co-sanctioned event has the potential to be just as difficult although in a different way, with the infamous Fremantle Doctor threatening to blow across Perth. Area knowledge has to be an advantage and as such it is a huge surprise that we can take the following matchbet

Greg Chalmers to beat Charl Schwartzel - 8 points @ 11-8 (BetVictor)

Schwartzel's rediculous outright price can only be due to his form in last week's non-event in Turkey and he is wrongly assumed to be a more valid winner than Chalmers. The Saffer's form has dipped since that Masters win in 2011, and can only boast a best of 14th this season and only one event where he beat 70 in all four rounds. Confident he may be, but he hasn't shown any real sprk this year and has no real experience of the conditions. Despite wins by compatriots Els and Goosen, he does not look in good enough form torepeat that South African run.

Chalmers, on the other hand, will know the conditions well. I have him as a shorter price in the outright market after a series of good efforts on the PGA Tour (finished 12 places above Schwartzel in regular season rankings) and of course his form in Oz reads very well. An infrequent winner in past years Chalmers came to life in 2011 winning the Australian Openand PGA before a respectable 12th in the Masters. Nothing in his recent game suggests that he has rested on his laurels and he is very confidently expected to take his form into this week and is incorrectly priced with any bookmaker going 5-4 or better.