Odds: 3-Balls
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5-1; +16.00pts  (system plays: 10-2-0) 

Round 1 plays (6pts):

Bo Van Pelt to beat Brett Rumford -116 @ Bet365  WON by 1
Backing the defending champion to play well this week. He is well rested after not playing on the Tour since the start of September and is openly looking forward to this event. Rumford has had a couple of spells of three good tournaments in a row this year, but he missed the cut last time out and failed to break 70 in any round in the inaugural event on this course last year.

Bo Van Pelt to beat Paul Casey -110 @ 5Dimes  WON by 6
Casey fared better last year, finishing 5th, but he has had a poor season. The only time that he has finished ahead of Van Pelt in any event since the start of the 2012 season (11 common events) was at the PGA Championship this year; every other time he has finished behind BVP.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Coles tb Kofstad -110 (W); Johnson tb Casey -140 (W); Kjeldsen tb Lonard -125 (L)]

Round 2 plays (6pts unless stated):

Gregory Havret to beat Branden Grace +105 @ Bet365  TIED
Opposing Grace who has struggled to recapture his form of 2012. He has finished outside of the top-50 in each of his last five events and has recorded just one finish inside the top-50 since the start of June. He didn't play any better in the Presidents Cup, going 0-for-4 that week, so I don't see him improving much on his current 49th position after rd1.

Nathan Green to beat Peter Fowler -130 @ 5Dimes [4pts]  TIED
Two players well down the leaderboard, but that isn't a surprise for Fowler who has recorded just one top-10 finish on a non-Seniors Tour in over five years (39 events). Green may not have had a great 2013 so far, but there is a huge difference between a player who has held a Tour Card for the PGA Tour in 2013 and a player who has held a Tour Card for the European Senior Tour.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Pratt tb Felton -110 (W); Casey tb Grace -125 (W); Korhonen tb Bransdon -135 (W)] 

Round 3 plays (4pts):

James Nitties to beat Dimitrios Papadatos -150 @ 5Dimes  WON by 3
Two players who held the lead at stages on day one, but this is clearly uncharted territory for Papadatos as a pro. He has made three of eight cuts on the main pro Tours to date with a best finish of 15th last year and a best finish of 37th in 2013. Nitties was 3rd in the WA PGA Championship just two weeks ago and has the experience to cope with being in the final groups in such a co-sanctioned event.

J.B. Hansen to beat Ross McGowan -125 @ Bet365  WON by 8
Ranking 1st for greens in regulation and 2nd for scrambling so far this week, Hansen is statistically playing the best golf over the first two days even though he is six shots off the lead. McGowan has been struggling on the Challenge Tour for the last couple of seasons and shouldn't be a match for the Dane who is playing so well.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Andersson Hed tb Hoey -125 (W); Morrison tb Cooke -120 (W); Wakefield tb Jeffress -135 (W)]

Round 4 play (6pts unless stated):

Fredrik Andersson Hed to beat Danny Willett +100 @ Bet365  LOST by 4
I'll take these odds on the more in-form player. Andersson Hed has finishes of 22nd and 4th in two of his last three starts; Willett's last top-25 finish was back in July and he has secured just one top-60 finish in his last six starts. The Swede looks more likely to retain his top-10 finish throughout the final round.

Craig Lee to beat Rohan Blizard -130 @ 5Dimes [2pts]  WON by 1
Blizard has failed to finish in the top-50 in any of his previous six European Tour events so it will be a personal best on this Tour if he holds onto his 33rd place. Lee lost out in a playoff for the European Masters last month so ha shown good form recently and does have the added incentive to keep focussed tomorrow: he is current 61st in the Race to Dubai and the top-60 qualify for the season-ending event.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Fisher R tb Rumford -125 (W); Andersson Hed tb Jeong -140 (L); Finch tb Scrivener -125 (W)]