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Marcus Fraser to beat Gregory Bourdy - 8 points @ 10-11 (Corals)

One of the most confident matchups this year as Fraser, strongly fancied to go close to winning this, takes on the out-of-form Frenchman.

Fraser was a huge eye-catcher last week when returning from an eight-month lay-off at the Hong Kong Open. Leading after the third day, he has a right to be disappointed with the way he played on Sunday but had he been offered a top-5 finish (nay a top-10) before the event, I am sure he would have taken it. He is noted as commenting after that third round 65 that he had 'forgotten how much fun it is to play golf tournaments, especially in the mix' and he has every reason to be proud of that first outing since surgery on his hand. A much improved player over the last few years, he has a trio of runner-up finishes in his native country as well as boasting results in fine company, enough to rank him inside the top 75 for the last four seasons and inside the R2D for 2012 and 2013. Obviously he isn't going to making it there this year but that takes nothing away from that recent effort and with an ever-present 18th around here last year, can take some real positive memories with him this week. I would be disappointed if he finished outside the top-10 in a mixed field and that should be plenty enough to win this match.

I think the best thing we can say about Bourdy at the moment is that he is a great wind player, something that may be an advantage this week. However, that does mean forgiving him seven missed-cuts this year, including when defending in Wales just a month ago. The 7th in the shortened Portugal Masters is what it is but that is sandwiched by moderate efforts at the Links and last time in Hong Kong, an event at which he has a terrific record. Bourdy may well be playing here to get into that top-60 of the rankings as he currently has at least 100k euros to find but he doesn't have any record of form here bar a m/c in 2009 and a World Cup outing and I simmply cannot see how they are priced as an each-of-two. As an aside, the selection leads 3-1 in head-to-heads since 2013. Go get your money.