Victorian Open	Subscribe

Whoever organised the European Tour schedule had a wicked sense of irony. From an inaugural European Tour event in Saudi Arabia, who rank 136^th of 142 in the WEF Global Gender Gap Index, to an inaugural European Tour event in Australia in which men and women compete on the same course at the same time and for the same amount of money.

It makes a nice change from controversies over penalties imposed under the new rules, the revoking of those penalties the following day, and disqualifications for purposing damaging multiple greens.

The event may inaugural on the European Tour, but it has been a regular feature on the Australasian and ALPG Tours since 2013. The Ladies European Tour become the first Tour to join this co-sanctioned event in 2017 and now the European Tour has joined as well, though the LPGA Tour has now taken over from the LET.

With the backing of the Victorian Government, as well as new sponsors ISPS Handa, the prize money has doubled the amount of prize money from 2018 and the $3 million AUD is now more than ten times the amount available in 2013. Not enough to get the top-four in the World Rankings to compete, though.

This is a two-course event with both the Beach and the Creek courses are used over the first two days. Unusually, there is a second cut after 54 holes with the top-35 and ties progressing to the final day. On all four days, there are alternating pairings of male and female players and they compete on the same courses, but in separate events.

Both courses are links courses with the Beach course being the obvious one to be along the coast with the Creek course slightly more inland. Both are less than 7,000 yards and feature a true links setup with the course defences built around deep bunkers and winds from the sea.

It may be the first time that this event has been played on the European Tour and there is a lack of stats relating to previous Victorian Opens, but there is one very significant angle to consider this week…

Angles to consider

1/ Course form, course form, course form

It worth saying three times as there are three angles to course form being important this week. First, this is a highly unusual event. Whereas they are playing in their third multi-course event in four weeks on the PGA Tour, there are very few on the European Tour: the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and the Joburg Open, though the South African Open in December was also multi-course for the first time. More significant is that men will be competing on the same course in alternating groups with women. That will be very unusual for the European Tour regulars this week.

Second, whereas the Australasian Tour professionals will have (up to) six years’ worth of course knowledge accumulated by this week, their European Tour counterparts will be seeing these courses for the first time. Links courses are not flat and you can’t see everything from the tee, so course knowledge will be as important this week as on any links courses.

Third, ignoring last year’s strange event, each of the previous four winners had achieved at least one top-15 finish in this event (two of the three eligible ones had two top-15 finishes). That leaves only the inaugural event in 2013, so that’s a very strong trend. Two of last year’s top-5 had previously secured top-15 finishes here, but not the winner.

Each player’s course history can be found here: https://www.tour-tips.com/Australasian/Stats.aspx?table=Course

Selections

The above angle has been used to create a shortlist from which the following players are selected

Jake McLeod

I think there is value in backing him in all the place markets, but the most value lies in the top-20 market. I’m not confident on backing him each-way.

He shot 61 in rd2 two years ago to surge to the top of the leaderboard, which he then maintained throughout rd3, but was four-over-par in his front nine to lose the lead on Sunday and finished 2^nd. It was a similar story in the European Tour co-sanctioned Australian PGA Championship in December: he led after rd1, fell to 2^nd after rd2 before finishing 19^th. And again last week, he was 2^nd after rd1 last week, before finishing 34^th in the Saudi International.

He has the course experience and the form to contend yet again this week. And while he hasn’t been able to convert his chance in European Tour events previously, this is a weaker field and he did win the New South Wales Open on the Australasian Tour in November.

Steven Jeffress

Another with a very good record in this event. He finished 6^th here in 2014 and last year he started the final round in the final group in 2^nd place, only to finish 5^th in a close final round.

This will be his first start of 2019, but he ended last year in very good form, finishing 17^th in the Indonesian Masters in mid-December, his sixth top-25 finish in his last seven starts of 2018.

He has won the Fiji International previously (2014) and, in terms of European Tour co-sanctioned events, he finished 6^th in the 2017 World Super 6 Perth and 11^th in the Fiji International in August so he should have confidence that he can compete in these richer events.

Darren Beck

Beck is another who has shown that he can place in much stronger European Tour-sanctioned events: he finished 9^th in the Australian PGA Championship in December. In terms of his previously history at 13^th Beach, he has finished 26^th, 27^th and 31^st in the last three years. Not quite fitting the top-15 angle for identifying a winner, but he is a seasoned player who concentrates on the Australasian Tour now and is available at good odds to secure a top-20 finish.

Given the unusual format and the angles to consider, there is better value to be found lower down the market this week and away from the prime outright market.

Tips  0-3; 6.00pts

2pts Jake McLeod to finish in the top-20 5/2 (Unibet, 888Sport)  mc

2pts Steven Jeffress to finish in the top-20 11/2 (Skybet)  * Now 15/2 at Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook *  30th

2pts Darren Beck to finish in the top-20 13/2 (Skybet)  * Now 9/1 at Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook *  49th