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Victor Riu - 0.75 points each-way @ 25-1 (Skybet/Betvictor) Jeppe Huldahl - 0.5 points each-way @ 50-1 (Betvictor) Robert Dinwiddie - 0.5 points each-way @ 100-1 (Bet365)
Despite being only 6400-yards, the Brittany course is one of the toughest tracks of the year, always producing winning scores in single figures despite players often recording rounds in the low 60s. The reason for the struggles is the magnificent venue that lies just next to The Channel and 'suffers' from swirling winds, mixing with narrow fairways and sloping greens meaning brains will definately owt over brawn this week. Recent winners Eddie Pepperel and Philip Archer are testement to the belief that patience will win the day whilst, of course, they have both competed in much higher grade, and in the case of the former, a certain future winner. Sihwan Kim looks an extremely dubious jolly and is one huge reason why I wish Betfair had a market up on the CT. Much reliant on wide fairways where he can open his shoulders from the tee, this looks a completely alien course for him, and he has already let a couple of real oppertunities go awry this season. Joint market rival, Jamie McLeary has the look of a Stenson or Bourdy, showing progressive quality form recently, and like those two, may have found the oppertunity to win. However, backing maidens as short as 20-1 makes no appeal. Up top, Frenchman Victor Riu does make considerable appeal at the general 25-1 as he had more the look of a 20-1 favourite, and he has to be in the plan given he lies in a qualifying position in the rankings after that win in Switzerland and is free of pressure. 7th at the Nejeti Open (the St Omer to normal folk), another vey tricky track with a high winning score (5-under), his victory in the Swiss came via a superb 64/62 in the middle of the event, and whilst he wobbled at the start on Sunday composed himself to ease home from subsequent winner, the very promising American Brinson Paolini. Riu's record here is more in the 'improving' catagory than stunning, but he is a different player now and that runner-up in 2010 could easily have been a win but he admitted after that “I’m very disappointed. There was too much pressure on the last hole when I saw the leaderboard. I hit my tee shot perfectly but then I saw the scores and hit my second shot very badly.”. He should certainly be less nervous when in that position now and repeats of final rounds here of 82 and 77 in previous years should also be a thing of the past. Having played some excellent golf when 3rd in Germany before that win, he also showed up well when 6th in the recent Rolex and he gives the impression in interview that he will be right up for this event. I can't leave him out.
2009 Welsh Open winner, Jeppe Huldahl will never be one to place maximum faith in, but whilst he does have his share of missed-cuts in France, he can also boast a 7th in the Nejati a couple of months ago and a runner-up here last season, both factors that make him dangerous in any wind. Chasing Pepperel down the stretch is quality form, and his long birdie putt at the 72nd to force the play-off, was typical of the Dane, who some may remember was all over the shop in Wales but somehow got it round. Currently just in a play-off place, he needs a few more Euros over the next couple of events and whilst he hasn't won for a while, 15th in Germany, 25th in the Scottish Hydro and lately 16th at the Rolex give some encouragement although it is that form in the wind, along with the important course form, that makes him look worthy of support at 50-1.
Finally I cannot resist a small bet on Robert Dinwiddie who hasn't won for three years but must surely soon return to the form that saw him have three top-10s in a row in the South African swing in 2010/11, 15th in the Alfred Dunhill Links, and all that following five top-10s in his rookie season on the main Tour. Significantly, Dinwiddie has wins at the Scottish Hydro (windy) and at Kenya (narrow and often tricky) whilst that runner-up at the St.Omer also lends backing that this course will suit. The Anglo-Scot hasn't played here since 2007, when a first round 77 did for him, but a recent 4th in the Nejati (St.Omer again!) and 12th in the prestigious Rolex show he can still play. For whatever reason, he reminds me of Philip Archer in much of his play, no bad thing given the latter would have been very high on the list for this week. At 100-1, there is very little downside.
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