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Outright Picks - European Challenge Tour

Tipster: Jumbo

Odds: Outright

 
 
Czech Challenge Open
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Julien Guerrier - 1 point each-way @ 18-1 (general) 

 

 

Is Brooks Koepka this years Kris Broberg? Very possibly judged on his runaway win last week in Spain, when recording his second victory in four starts. He has plenty to do to get to even that level, but whatever his fate the price of 7-1 this week illustrates just how poor the field is, and with a few players getting into the main event in Austria, we are left with a right mottley crew!

 

Still, 7-1 (13-2 in a place) is extremely short and it will be a long time before I start taking that sort of price at this level. Looking at the field however, many of the players carrying course form are woefully out of kilter this season whilst the opposite is true of many of the rest that are left! So it is just small stakes this week and whilst a 'no bet' week was given consideration, in the end Julien Guerrier gets the vote at 18-1, possibly a couple of points too big in the overall context of the field.

 

A decent enough amateur with a 3rd on the Alps Tour (a Tour always worth following for future clues), his best season came in 2011 when finishing 16th in the Ct rankings to earn a main Tour card. Apart from good finishes at St Omer and Madeira, there wasn't much to crow about and his best season thus far remains 2010, when recording top-20s at the Alfred Dunhill, Johnnie Walker and Vivendi Cup. That level is competitive here this week and a fall in form can be explained by injury, and after a lay-off of over five months, Guerrier feels ready to show his form, as can be seen with recent results of 5/21/5. He tied second after the first round last week in Spain (with the eventual runaway winner), before going missing mid-event and concluding wiith a Sunday 66, which coincidentally again tied with Koepka. That finish will also give him confidence coming to the Czech event where he finished 15th last season and 5th in that 'stellar' year of 2010 (over a different course).

 

Overall current, course and location form puts him right there and with the possibilty of improvement to come with more freedom of his swing, he looks sure to challenge.

 

Others that were worth a look include last weeks selections Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez and Lucas Bjerrgarrd, joint 14th in Spain but with no course experience whilst Steven Tiley hasn't missed a cut this season and comes off a top-10 in Belgium at the end of May and was 4th here last season. Bjerrgaard is the one to watch of those three mentioned but for now it's just one this week.