Challenge de Espana

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Jordi Garcia Pinto - 0.75 points each-way @ 55-1 (Skybet)

Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 0.5 points each-way @ 80-1 (Paddy Power/Skybet))

Lucas Bjerregaard - 0.75 points each-way @ 50-1 (bet365) 

Slightly unfortunate with Dodge Kemmer last weekend, but inconsistency is part and parcel of non-winners at this level, and that third-round slump cost him dear. He is well worth following this season but having been 125-1 last week, there is no way that I can take 40-1 just four days later, Winner Daniel Gaunt was a 'watch' last season and there is some strategy in keeping backed players to the top of the notebook - so often do they just lose a touch of form before going in and inflated odds in comparison to their talent.

The same could be said of the first of this week's selections. Jordi Garcia Pinto was put up as one of three for this event last season. The idea was that he obviously had plenty of experience of Spain and a then recent top-ten proved this was his grade. Although not as consistent this year, Pinto has the all-important first win, in Kenya, and although proving very nervous through the stretch, managed to hold on from certain future winner Tim Sluiter. Form since isn't great but he should come alive again at home, on a course where he was destined for a top-ten finish in 2010 before a poor final day. Multiple winners are not unusual on this Tour and with plenty of improvement to come from the 23-year-old, can thrill the home fans with a strong challenge. The early 60-1 has gone but 55-1 is fair in comparison to the correct price of 40-1 elsewhere.

Another home player who looks overpriced is Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez. Ironically he was tipped in another Spanish event of 2012, the Challenge de Catalunya and was another who played better than his triple-figure price. Again, we are asked to take less, and the very early 100-1 is now a best of 80s, still worth taking.

2012 was decent for Rodriguez, with three top-15 finishes from starts, including a 9th in this event and 15th when carrying the aforementioned wager. A third-round 74 sent him from 2nd to 14th overnight and it is to his credit that he fought back on Payday. It is a slight worry that he has a small history of losing his position for one round but there is enough evidence to suggest if he breaks his duck it will be on the European mainland, and it may as well be in Spain.

Finally, Lucas Bjerregaard, last seasons Nordic Tour (Ecco Tour) champion, looks to continue his rise through the rankings. Following a glittering amateur career, including victory in the European Amateur Championship in 2010 (following the likes of Victor Dubuisson, Sergio Garcia and Rory McIlroy),  the Dane finished ahead of Kristoffer Broberg et al in the rankings allowing him to take his chance on the Challenge Tour. Given Broberg won three times there, and again four times on this Tour, it can only be matter of time before Bjerregaard puts his head in front and kicks on in the manner of compatriot and friend Morten Orum Madsen. Just 21 years of age, he has plenty of time to progress but two top-25s in his first two starts bodes well, whilst crucially he has already won in Spain this year, at Madrid in March, on the under-rated Ecco Tour, a stat that may have been lost on the oddsmakers.