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Outright Picks - European Challenge Tour

Tipster: Jumbo

Odds: Outright

 
 
Finnish Challenge
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Quick first bet as the price surely cannot last

 

Lucas Bjerregaard 0.75 points each-way @ 125-1 (Bet365) Price up to 100-1 okay

Dylan Fritelli 0.75 points each-way @ 33-1 (Skybet)

Phillip Archer 0.75 points each -way @ 50-1 (General) 

 

At only 21, Danish star Bjerregaard has already achieved as much as compatriots JB Hansen, Andreas Harto and Morten Orem Madsen and can be expected to join those on the main Tour within a year or two.

 

Winner of many Boys championship trophies, he added the prestigious European Amateur Championship in 2010, an event with past winners such as Rory McIlroy, Sergio Garcia and Victor Dubuisson. As an amateur Lucas shot 73/75 in the first two rounds of the 2011 Open at St.Georges, missing the cut but showing enough progression in his game, coming to fruition when winning the 2012 Nordic League.

 

That victory included two wins and eight top-10s for a total points haul that even beat the likes of Kriss Broberg from 2011, and the latters impressive subsequent Challenge Tour season is well known. Given that the Tour obviously takes place around Scandinavia, Bjerregaard will be extremely comfortable back in Finland and that may see a return to the form that has seen victory 'off the card' already this year, when winning in a play-off at La Manga for the ECCO Spanish Open in March. He followed that up with a 9th in the Mediter Real Estate Masters and whilst these were not the strongest of fields, it will have given him the self-belief that he can win again. 

 

Results around that return to the Nordic Tour haven't been spectacular but top-25 in Kenya and Italy could have been better but for poor Sunday rounds, whilst 14th and 12th in mainland Europe show progression. Last weeks effort in France resulted in a missed-cut but again that 67 after an opening round of ten shots more, shows that he has the game, it is simply about honing consistency and that can come at any time.

 

It looks like the odds-makers have played the market from the 'card' rather than his actual ability and potential and the early 125-1 was huge. the return to this part of the world will suit, he is still very confident and enjoying life on the Challenge Tour and it will click soon enough. As such, any time a young, talented player like this is three figures I want to be on.     

 

No apology for reselecting last weeks two selections. Although shorter in the betting after tied-fourth in France, both Frittelli and Archer showed excellent overall play throughout, and continuing consistently impressive form, deserve to be added once again.

 

There is little to be added to last week's comments other than that both will be slightly disappointed not to have won. However, both have serious credentials this week with conditions suiting in differing ways.

South African Frittelli gained his fourth top-10 (including a win in Austria) with a final round 68, but will be struggling to work out how he scored 4-over through the first ten holes on Saturday. Completely out of character and taking to every course at first sight, he is not expected to play so poorly again and having been beaten just two shots will surely be thinking another win is around the corner. Frittelli's scrambling is impressive and his putting is up there with the best of the field. Given the greens here are huge and classy putter Broberg won last season, it makes logical sense to include him again.   

Archer will be another with small regrets from last week. Rather like in Italy, when he went 66/68/69/69 and never left the top six, Archer shot an incredibly consistent 67/67/67 for the last three rounds in France. With back-to-back eagles on Sunday, he will be annoyed to have shot 1-over down the stertch that included two par-5s and again to be beaten by just two shots. The Englishman is in fantastic nick, and does go on streaky runs, so it is well worth having him onside this week. Earlier this year Archer had a results streak of 3/mc/14/11 and then took in a series of weekends off. Hoping he is on one of his decent runs, he will not mind if it is as windy this weekend as it was last season, in fact he will relish it. 

I did take a look at the very young Finnish star Tapio Pulkkanen on his return to home, and he has credentials based on an early-season runner-up in Spain, plus a play-off loss to Bjerregaard at La Manga and a runner-up a week later (both on the ECCO Danish Tour) but need to see more consistency at this level even at 200-1, whilst the likes of Kim (choked when clear last Sunday), Kakko (will enjoy playing here but only 59th last year) and Lima (never the easiest to catch right) all trade at much too short a price given their win records. This is possibly the last time that Frittelli will be 33-1, and whilst he won't answer my questions on Twitter, he has still not been caught by the oddsmakers.