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Steven Tiley - 0.75 points each-way @ 80-1 (Power) 66-1 Okay Sam Walker - 0.75 points each-way @ 50-1 (General) Michael Jonzon - 0.25 points each-way @ 125-1 (VC/Power)
Whoopee, another new course.
As said last week, it is lovely to see new courses appear on any Tour, but to have them on the most important weeks of the season is ludicrous. Nevertheless, what we have is a Greg Norman, wide-open course with the threat of 'Linksy' winds. Top that with the nerves of many of the players as they try to gain a top-45 position in order to go to the Finale and it should be fun.
Maiden Nacho Elvira won last week to launch himself into 13th place on the rankings and it is extremely possible that that could happen again. Most of the fancied players are already home-and-hosed with their Euro Tour cards in their pockets so are all worth ignoring and so take a chance with a few in-form players with a history of playing in the wind.
First up, in-form Steven Tiley looks massively overpriced at 80-1with one firm, but even the general 66-1 is fine. Currently 35th in the lists, the Englishman will need to continue to rack up Euros and is confidently expected to put up a show. I looked at both the Scottish Hydro and Madeira for clues to this event and however spurious, a few names kept appearing at both. Both places are subject to gusts and whilst Madeira is far more undulating than Oman, there does look to be a connection. As far as Tiley is concerned, 2nd and 24th at the two venues reads well enough, whilst finishes of 8th and 16th in 2011 back up the claims. Current form is good enough with top-25s in Ukraine and China, whilst top-30 in The Open also back his profile. He will enjoy the wide spaces of the Oman track and simply looks a good few points too big compared with the leaders who, as said, may not be trying that hard come the weekend.
Next, Sam Walker comes here on the back of a runner-up last week in China, a hugely encouraging debut at a new course and despite a bogey at the 72nd costing him a place in a play-off. Again, another with form at the Hydro having won in 2012 before running-up to Koepka this season, he doesn't need to earn a fortune to gain his 'card' but equally will be keeping his eye on those behind him. Walker is experienced enough to know what he needs to do and with four other top-5 finishes this year should be one of the less nervy ones if it gets tight.
Finally a bit of a dark stab but Michael Jonzon is surely too full of ability to be going off at triple figures. The Swede isn't easy to read but he is a winner, four times no less, and the victories include a win in the 2009 Castello, finishing in front of the likes of Martin Kaymer, Sergio Garcia, Darren Clarke et al. I couldn't suggest he is in anything like that form, but he hits it a country mile and will enjoy the wide fairways in front of him this week. He doesn't have the most convincing of profiles, with only that 11th in the KLM of real note, but that itself reads well in the context of this event and he is clearly here to try - with only 5000Euro prize money on this Tour he has no choice. Given he can certainly play the game and should enjoy the venue, he is the third man off the tee. |