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Dylan Frittelli - 1 point each-way 1,2,3,4 @ 35-1 (bet365) Edouard Dubois - 0.75 points each-way @ 60-1 (bet365)
A quick first bet in the limited field event (restricted to the top-40 in the rankings). Regular readers will know that the South African has been tipped a few times so far this year, and has already landed a 40-1 win and 40-1 tied-fourth. Latest missed-cuts are disappointing, but this event requires a player who is aggressive, can shoot low and can putt like a demon - all qualities that Frittelli possesses. The list of previous winners suggests that as well as those attributes, the winner needs to show he can compete at the top level and with the likes of Mark Warren, Julien Quesne and Alex Noren all previous winners, and Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Jamie Donaldson and Ross Fisher contenders, something resembling an identikit challenger can be formed and Frittelli fits the bill. Currently 11th in the rankings, he will need to obtain a few more Euros to ensure his place at the seasonal finale, but with top-10's and 15's littering his form, he can be expected to get back to the form that has already posted a huge amount of mid-60 scores this season. The two week break will have helped, he shot 63 in his final round the only time he has played in Switzerland (finishing 23rd) and a return to the game that obtained fourth in France just three events back would be plenty enough to be right there, given that he went missing for most of the third round. I am happy to take this sort of price in a full-field event, so 35-1 when conditions look like suiting is very appealing.
It is also worth taking a chance with Edouard Dubois at the 60-1 currently on offer (was marginally bigger for a while). Considering his overall form, and that he was considerably shorter in the market for the majority of recent events, this seems a huge over-reaction to average recent runs. We'll need to forgive his 31/36 form here for 2010/2011, but he can shoot low as when winning the Kärnten in 2011 with a total of 23-under. A week later he won the Scottish Hydro in 13-under, so is proven under any conditions. His runner-up in Spain in February was courtesy of a 63/67/68 opening salvo and he also shot low for the majority of the events in Scotland (the Hydro) and in Germany in July. Everything is price orientated and he is simply far too big at anything over 33-1, especially given the place angle.
There is a temptation to get with our most recent winner, Jens Fahbring, who at 28-1 sits amongst non-winners in the market. There is no reason why he cannot go back-to-back as has been done a few times on the Challenge Tour (most recently by Broberg in 2012) and he must come on from a win throughout which he was very nervous, but I'd have liked to have seen the event played the week after, rather than have the gap. The break could be a blessing in disguise, given it will allow the Swede time to get over the adulation, but being in doubt, he'll have to go on the 'pass' list.
I am away for the event in Northern Ireland next week, so Ian will be covering for me. Good Luck with your bets and pray that nobody beats me to the August top tipster! |