Tuscany Open

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ANDREA PAVAN - 2.75 POINTS WIN @ 12-1 (SKYBET)

AGUSTIN DOMINGO - 0.40 POINTS EACH-WAY @ 66-1 (SKYBET)

FERDERICO COLOMBO - 0.40 POINTS EACH-WAY @ 150-1 (BET365)

FERDERICO COLOMBO - 0.65 POINTS TOP-10 @ 11-1 (SKYBET) 

Having just spent an hour typing this article and seeing it crash before my eyes, forgive me for the brief summary below.

Andrea Pavan seems more than an obvious favourite this week, and whilst I originally wanted 14-1, it is clear why this three-time winner has been put in as a short priced favourite. He won here as an amateur, played at a decent level on the US College circuit - home of so many good winners - and already lies 2nd in the rankings behind Euro Tour-bound Brooks Koepka. At just 24, he has bundles of improvement in him but already boasts an impressive run of form figures, backing up his win in Germany with three top-5s, sandwiched with 22,6 and 13 last time in Switzerland. Form at home is as expected with 7th in Rome in 2011, followed by a victory over eventual number one Tommy Fleetwood at the lucrative finale. Pavan's first year on the main Tour, in 2012, wasn't the stuff of legend but 14th in the Avantha amongst a further seven cuts have given him the taste of the big league and he is expected to go very close this week on a course he knows well. Unlike his main market rivals, he knows how to win and given the location, there seems very little negative.

Spaniard Agustin Domingo may not be the first one on your lips, but whilst he has taken his time, his results show steady improvement having ranked 81 in 2011, through 60th and now 15th in 2013. However, he seems another that favours this country and 15th here last season followed by the same finish in the Acaya, and 2nd earlier this season at the Montecchia. A top-12 in Kenya suggests that Domingo can play tightish courses and a couple of 7th place finishes in the middle of June all suggest that a return here could boost his game. At 66-1 he is worth the chance.

I reluctantly left out American Dylan Fritelli, winner for us a couple of weeks ago, simply on price, though am exepcting him to show continual improvement throughout this season and he is very high on the radar. Instead take a chance with a player with eight missed-cuts in a row.

Ferderico Colombo is unlikely to hit the heights of his boyhood team-mates the Molinari brothers, but it is consistency rather than ability which has proven his downfall. Colombo improved his ranking from 67th to 7th from 2009-2011 and courtesy of eight top-10s from twenty starts qualified for the main Tour in 2012. Results were not stunning, but eight cuts including top-30 in the BMW and top-20 in Wales to finish 157th on the Race To Dubai show he has ability and whilst that has not continued in 2013, it is more than noteworthy that he only top-40 (!!) has been a 7th in the aforementioned Montecchia Open. Given his record at home, 6th here in 2011, 7th in Rome and 11th in the 2011 finale, it is clear that he raisses his game when playing in Italy. At the prices for both the outright and top-10, he is worth playing.

A tricky week that looks at the feet of Pavan. Should he fail, then the event is far more open than the books suggest. Good Luck.