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Carlos Aguilar - 0.5 points each-way @ 150-1 (Skybet) Lloyd Kennedy - 0.25 points each-way @ 125-1 (Skybet) Ross McGowan - 0.50 points each-way @ 66-1 (Skybet) In a season of horrors, the Tour returns to the Brittany course that can fool with it's short 6400-yard layout. Despite the frequent rounds in the mid-60s the event rarely produces low scoring winners and last years winner Andre Pavan was the first player since 2007 to hit double-figures. The reason the course plays so tricky are the swirling winds of The Channel that lie right by the course and previous winners do tend to be of a type that frequently play well at the windier, tricky tracks rather than the beat-em-up-20-under courses. Narrow fairways and sloping greens mean players need to think their way round and give a small nod to the likes of the Nejati (ex St Omar) and the like. The three players chosen have shown a penchant for the likely conditions but after a month or so of punter-unfriendly results, are also at the right end of the price scale. Carlos Aguilar is hardly the household name that his namesake Felipe is on the main Tour but he flits in-and-out of form and does appear to enjoy this sort of challenge. 2nd at the Nejati is hugely significant and that best ever result comes in a season in which he should beat his previous best ranking of 36th. Adding weight to the bet is his form here, a 4th after a bad Sunday in 2012 followed by a missed-cut in '13 -however, that second-round 66 is significant and almost cancelled out an appalling 77 start. Two recent outings are okay (18/56) given they may not be his track and 150-1 does look far too big in a season of shocks with a few winners less qualified for their eventual win. Kennedy's form may seem as though he has lost his love of life, or at least golf, but the return here may spark something. Two top-10s here in 2009/2010 and 25/34 since are fine if he returns to the form of the 3rd at the Nejati (I really hope that result is significant) and another at three-figures, is worth a poke in the hope he is inspired. Mark Tullo loves the wind and should really be doing well here and at a fair 33-1 but two m/c here speak volumes and instead I'll plump for Englishman McGowan. The 32-year-old seems to have been around forever but despite a 2009 win in Madrid from Mikko Ilonen and Sergio Garcia including a third-round 60 has not kicked on, injury preventing his progress. That maiden European Tour win was surrounded by a 3rd at Crans, 6th at the Links and 2nd in Dubai and it is a real shame that he has not been able to fulfill his promise, playing many fewer events than his peers. Still, he retains the ability to keep the ball in play as befits this track and, once again, has some decent results at the more trickier tracks this year. Runner-up to Peter Baker here in 2007, he didn't appear again until last year when dq'd but always has given me the impression of similar types such as Philip Archer and Robert Dinwiddie, who grabbed a place for us last year at 100-1. I felt that without the big names being present this week, here was a chance for the talented McGowan to gain some dollars. |