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The last couple of seasons on the Challenge Tour have been a, er, challenge but there was always confidence that the season would turn. 2014, however, does seem one of the most open for years and, with the debut of a few courses, has provided a tough first quarter of the year. At last we now have an event with course form and an almost definite profile, one that rewards length and aggression. The past couple of runnings have seen very low scores and 20-under has been the target - given good weather we can expect the same and though the rough hasn't grown much due to low temperatures (!!) and is far from penal, the forecast this week is poor and it may turn out to be a war of attrition. There were a few players on the short list who had to left out simply because of price. Joint favourites Byeong-Hun An and Jordi Garcia Pinto are both in excellent form, the former excellent amateur appreciating the outing at low-scoring Austria last week and continuing a rich vein of results with 13th at the tricky Turkey Airlines Challenge proof that he is not a one-trick pony. Spaniard Garcia Pinto leads the rankings at the moment but without a win and he will need to take advantage of the drop in class from his last event, the home Spanish Open, to stay there. Even with the potential of An and the rock-solid claims of the latter along with his top-15 here last year, neither appeal at all at sub-20 - after all, none are as dominant as someone like Broberg was in his year, and there was plenty of 14-1 around for him in his pomp. The price is also the main reason for leaving out Daniel Vancsik, a proven winner even if his last victory was five years ago. Driving is his forte and whilst he can often go missing into a tournament after a low round, the return to a low-scoring course last week led to a finish of 12th, something he can build on this week. 15th last year after a second-round birdie blitz of 65 this was the week to back him. His power will help if it becomes hard work off the tee but I was too slow in getting the massive 90-1 and he is only priced right now at 66-1. Jake Roos - 1.5 points each-way @ 35-1 (Bet365) I was torn between two players at the same price but whilst Espana has been prominent at halfway, falling away third round before coming again, the South African rookie is a proven winner in this grade. A top amateur in his homeland with almost the inevitable college spell in The States, Roos won six events on the Sunshine Tour before catching the eye during the co-sanctioned mini-Tour finishing top-25 in the Nelson Mandela and 15th at Tshwane, having shot 69/65 for the opening two rounds. The win at Kenya, the first event of the season, came earlier than was thought and Roos had to totally reorganise his year having already planned a season back on the Sunshine Tour. It has proven a wise decision however, with an excellent 4th at last week's Austrian event with a total of 16-under and including two final rounds of 66 with plenty of eagles and birdies on the card. Now settled, he is expected to eventually prove a certain qualifier for the main Tour and can start that graduation this week on a course that will reward his excellent iron play. I had to leave out Callum Shinkwin as the price is prohibitive, although he is expected to love the open fairways and won't mind the cold. Instead the final pick goes to my number two to follow! Jesper Kennegaard - 0.50 points each-way @ 200-1 (General) Oh come on, serious? I am indeed. As said a couple of times already, the Swede will be continually backed at these inflated prices as he simply much better than the oddsmakers suggest. Sure, the run of missed-cuts is hardly appealing but (sorry for repeating all this), he is one of the most highly thought-of golfers from Sweden, his College career was top class, as was his Nordic form. He has shown precious little this year so far but the second-round 66 last week was a shove in the right direction. Six birdies in a round of 5-under could well give him some confidence back on a scoring course and anything resembling form from just 12 months ago would see his price tumble over the coming weeks. Wall, head, bang, etc. |
