Challenge Tour Grand Final

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Andrew Johnston – 1.5 points each-way @ 33-1 (Betfred))

Ben Evans – 1 point each-way @ 66-1 (Power))

Given the likes of in-form  Jason Palmer, multi-winner Moritz Lampert and number-4 ranked Sam Hutsby already look out of running for the trophy amongst other fancied runners, it makes perfect sense to go back in with a back-up to the only pre-event wager Mark Tullo, currently leading by one.

On a tricky day described as not as tough as Oman but with a two-shot club difference at some holes, getting an early position could be vital and the Chilean did a sterling job with one eagle and a back-nine 33. Given his experience he should be hard to shift from a podium place but given the game of golf, no chickens have yet been counted.

Any of the top-10 or so can be feared but the man tied 20^th is one to keep an eye on. Andrew Johnston hasn’t played particularly consistently for a few weeks and looked to be one the in-running rags as he stood on the 17^th tee after a double-bogey. However, class shone and a birdie/eagle finish means he sits just 5 shots off the lead. The number-one ranked player has already shown this season that he is capable of a big finish, coming from way off the pace in France and with recent weekend rounds of 65, 64 and a 63 at the Dunhill Links. His runner-up in Kazakhstan came over a month ago and the problem is knowing just how much he will push for a win knowing that Mark Tullo needs him to fail miserably to nick the Rolex Trophy. Still, 25-1 is very big for a classy player who is proven in wind and with low scores.

The only other one of interest is Ben Evans, a player I wanted to back pre-event but can now be backed at the same price even ‘without’ some big names. 3-over after a few holes, he fought back well to finish level for the day and is another with recent flying finishes. 4^th in France (weekend 68/67), 6^th in Kazakhstan (69/69) and 2^nd at the Foshan (68/66) all indicate a game in great shape. He would be expected to come on from the first proper sighting of the course and 50-1 looks to underestimate his chance of challenging.

Already advised : Mark Tullo - 3 points each-way @ 10-1 (Skybet) 

This is the second year that the magnificent Al Badia course has hosted the Grand Final, and what was 45 players come here having at least some theoretical chance to gain one of the 15 European Tour cards. A few at the top are safe and it is probably just as well that Florian Fritsch posted a runner-up finish in Italy last time as this confirmed aviophobe was always going to be unwilling to travel to Dubai. A strange decision given the stunning backdrop and lucrative weekend and one wonders how he is going to play enough on the main Tour to keep his card but there we are - down to 44.

Lessons learned from last year are that the 7333-yard par-72 can be a big challenge with even a small field seperated by 26 shots last year, and a look at the excellent course guide on the website https://www.albadiagolfclub.ae/play.php#Course shows a Linksy track with large amounts of oasis planting and enormous expanses of water. Indeed, holes 2,3,5,6,9,11,15,16, and 17 all have water in-play in huge amounts, whilst the par-5 18th is an excellent risk-and-reward hole that can offer eagle chances (even Rhys Davies had an eagle putt on the 72nd last year) but also bogeys and worse (Thomas Norret had a double-bagel there for a last hole memory to forget). Add that to the pressure of gaining one of those important slots and Sunday's final round will be fun. Just a quick mention that the live blog on the Challenge Tour website was excellent last year and may well be worth looking at if you have finished washing your hair each day.

In terms of finding the winner we only have Shiv Kapur's victory in 2013 to study and that may bring a premature conclusion that experience is key. Indeed, having opened up a three-shot lead overnight, he only had to return an unremarkable 2-under 70 to win by four, simply letting the chasers make vital mistakes at the wrong time. That does tend to suggest that those that are already safe may be the way to go. On the other hand, motivation counts so whilst I am sure they would all love to win here, how much will they play safe in contention?

Three-time winner in 2014 Moritz Lampert is in no form at all at present but it wouldn't surprise to see both he and current number one Andrew Johnston play a major part down the stretch as they did when going hammer-and-tongs at the Scottish Hydro Links, but you couldn't bet on any of those given their current play or what little we know of it. I was seemingly right to jack Byeong-Hun An last week although he gave me a shock when leading through the start of the weekend - seemingly true to form, he has trouble putting together four quality rounds - and he is again left out despite big claims on a course that will suit, proven with last years top-15 and a closing 66.

Further down, I'd like to be bigging up Callum Shinkwin given his pedigree and that he has drifted out again after a moderate week but this is a big ask for a maiden, whilst of course the likes of Hebert, Ritthammer and in-form Palmer (in particular) look sure to be challenging at some point.

Improving Ben Evans and last weeks winner Max Orrin have to be of interest and the former, in particular, is a real possible having disappointed when well fancied in Oman after three top-6s in his last six but there was only ever going to be one bet here if he kept his form and whilst he is favourite, Mark Tullo just has to be the pick.

I have begrudgingly avoided Tullo the last couple of weeks but the Chilean has now gone 3/3/6/18/6/9 to add to the win in Finland and three further top-10s. Vastly experienced on linksy tracks and with 'proper' form at St Andrews and in the Scottish Open, he was always going to appeal here this week. Untimately it was a matter of price but 10-1 cannot be said to be particuarly short given his qualification and the similarity to Kapur in his experience and as he is ultimately safe and yet not able to reach the number one slot, he should play with a lot of freedom this week.   

I'm not sure if I am returning for the 2015 Challenge Tour season. If so, see you then, if not I hope you've enjoyed reading the column over the last three seasons and I'd love to say it's been a degree of fun along the way. Honest, I would. If I could.

Be lucky.