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Outright Picks - European Challenge Tour

Tipster: Jumbo

Odds: Outright

 
 
Kazakhstan Open
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Andrew Johnston - 1.5 points each-way @ 20-1 (Skybet/Power)
Mark Tullo - 1.0 points each-way @ 35-1 (365)
Chris Paisley - 0.5 points each-way @ 100-1 (Skybet)


This time last year I tipped Andrew Johnston at 80-1 for this event on the strength of expected  improvement from injury and solid efforts on the vreturn to this grade . Of course, that was a few months early, 'Beef' then going on to win two events in 2014 and now looking likely to grab the number one slot from Moritz Lampert from just a couple of Euros behind. The latter will not care much given his immediate progression to the main Tour but I suspect the Englishman would like to join him in the 'auto status' class despite assured of a full card for 2015. 

Johnston has played just three times since the beginning of August and looks as if he is playing himself right back into form, a 17th at the Rolex following 3rd in Azerbaijan and sandwiched by a moderate finish but educational trip to Denmark on the main Tour. The last three runnings here (different course in 2013) resulted in wins around 20-under, so a solid driving and putting game will be needed, and anyone witnessing his effort in Scotland and France will know he can shoot the lights out - at the former he held a charging Lampert at arms length with a superb display of all-round golf. Johnston does not shoot many rounds in the 70s when right and I made him clear favourite this week at around 12-14.

Long driving, aggressive play and sharp putting are all features of Mark Tullo, and he is another than can shoot low on the right track. In France last time out he book ended two rounds around par with a 66/64 and he has a handful of mid-60s rounds in recent starts. Results here have been mid-table but he is worth following when in form and the 9th in Brittany saw him shake off the missed-cut in Northern Ireland, perfectly understandable coming in his fifth consecutive week of playing, and a couple of weeks after his win in Finland. Like Johnston, the Chilean has form and experience at the highest level and with many of these jockeying nervously for a top-45 place to qualify for the end of season bonanza, he looks a solid play.

It's the Challenge Tour so a  more speculative play is needed and Chris Paisley fits the bill. 

The Englishman is completely unpredictable but his win in 2012 at the English Challenge (-16) came in a season of top-15 places and 2014 has followed a similar pattern. Back at this level after a decent effort on the main Tour (122 on RTD) he has notched up five top-20s thus far in ranking  64th and needs a few results to get into that vital 45. Always in the top-20 in Northern Ireland, Paisley eventually finished 17th and the being type of player that puts decent finishes together is worth chancing that he can nick a place at least at the price.