Kenya Open

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Jason Palmer - 0.50 points each-way @ 80-1 (Bet365)

Won three times on the Alps Tour last year, subsequently winning the OOM by 12000 points. Most impressive of his three wins was the last of the three, a four round event, in which he cleared away from the pack at halfway to beat Edourdo Espana by 11 shots. Missed-cuts in Kenya the last twice he has played here but won the 2012 Kenya Pro-am so clearly takes to the venue, or similar tracks. Said he would be rusty for the first 2014 event and followed up the m/c with a steady 6th after disputing until the third and final round. Could become huge on the main Tour if he makes it, with his penchant for one-handed chipping, but the likeable player is worth the poke given the improvement shown over the past 12-18 months 

Gary Boyd - 0.35 points each-way @ 100-1 (Bet365)

Boyd could have become huge after an excellent 2010/11 where he had high finishes when the pressure was on. Found it hard to get his head in front after hitting the lead a couple of times but is surely better than his three-figure price in this grade. Form over the last 12-18 months has been poor, but the odd high finish on tightish tracks suggest he should take plenty of positives from arriving back in Kenya, scene of his one and only professionmal victory in 2009. Starts the season happy with his new clubs and is worth the risk at the price given his undoubted talent.     

Alessandro Tadini - 0.65 points each-way @ 66-1 (Bet365)

The most solid of the three, Tadini finds it hard to hold on his main Tour card but performs each time he drops to this level, finishing in the top echelons at the end of season. Given his nationality, unsurprisingly good on tightish courses and whilst Kenyan form is moderate he has had a nice run-out on the Alps Tour (a shot in front of Palmer) and much of his CT results over the last couple of seasons would see him bang there on Sunday. A proven winner, four times at this level, he was closer to 40-1 on my tissue.

Reluctantly left out - Bernd Ritthammer , 22nd at the BMW last year and 7th here, will keep improving and has had an outing; Philip Archer, an old stager with bundles of main Tour form and excellent finishes here but may prefer more wind, and Rhys Davies with signs of improvement in South Africa lately and at some point may return to the form he showed when winning and just missing on defending the Trophee Hassan.