Turkish Airlines Open

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After last weeks co-sanctioned farce in Madeira, the Challenge Tour moves to the National GC in Balek, Turkey with much to prove. Unfortunately there is no course form to speak of but we are very lucky in that the Ladies European Event took place at the same venue last week, with all four days on Sky. In that respect we know that the big hitters have no advantage and that accurate play off the tee and with approaches will give the best chance. A couple of the longer Euro ladies tried to overcome the course and found they were hidden behind trees or unable to attack the hidden pins, and this is the only but crucial angle we have on a course that will have had little time to recover from the event. Furthermore, the greens will be cut-up and rough and those that continually have to scramble look sure to struggle.

Last season saw a couple of events on similar tight, tree-lined tracks and this link is the one of the links used this week. As such, the advised bets are mostly players proven on this type of track, and with form at early season Kenya rather than latest efforts. 

Bernd Ritthammer - 0.75 points each-way @ 60-1 (Bet365)

Despite being a multiple winner on lesser tours such as his home ProGolf tour, the 27-year-old has yet to win at this level. Based on some very solid efforts over the last 18 months his turn cannot be too far away and evidence of his qualifications are all there through the 2013 season when 4 x top-15s plus a T2nd to the excellent Brooks Koepka are a highlight of his ability. Surely his best effort though is the 22nd at the high class BMW in Munich when he stats indicate a ranking of 10th for driving accuracy and greens-in-reg, crucial to this weeks chance. He may not have hit any high notes thus far this year with four m/c from five starts, but the odd big number is ruining his scorecard and he is much better judged on his form in Kenya, 10th after a poor 74 start. If that link is not spurious, he also has last seasons 7th at the same venue as proof of his ability on tight, tree-lined tracks. A two-time winner at home last season with an end-of-season ranking of 4th, if he is ever going to hit form again it should be on a track that will reward his accuracy.

Edouard Espana - 0.75 points each-way @ 60-1 (Bet365)

I am sure there is a Spaniard called 'Francais' somewhere but nevertheless the 24-year-old is highly thought of in many golf circles and, given his ability to win events, is surely going to cross the line in this higher grade. A four-time winner since turning professional a couple of years ago, his accuracy and ability with the putter will eventually set him apart from the middle ranked players. The Frenchman's last victory was on the satallite MENA tour in March at the Dar Es Salam in Morocco, where a bogey-free final round 66 eased him home. He followed hat up with a top-5 in similar class and whilst he is taking his time to find his feet at this level, a 16th at the shortened Madeira looks a step in the right direction. Top-10 in accuracy and GIR bodes well here this week and whilst we don't have enough stats to back up his putting, enough reports indicate his ability. I am encouraged with both the final round 69 last week but also the opening 66 at Catalunya that showed he can shoot low - put this all together and you have a decent golfer.    

Jesper Kennegard - 0.50 points each-way @ 125-1 (bet365/Power)

Yep, tipping a player with a form record of mc/mc/66 is not the way I would normally play but the Swede is so much better than he is showing and he will continue to be followed and backed at these prices. A couple of events ago I wrote, 'This is a player I expect to win at least once this year and soon. A decent US College player, he ranked 4th in his University's all time scoring average in between Phil Mickelson ands Paul Casey no less and took that form to the Asian Tour with limited success. Since then, he has dominated the Nordic League and won the rankings table with ease last season with 3 wins and many placed efforts. Expected to improve on an average opener in Kenya, his price doesn't reflect the expectation that he could follow in the steps of the afore-mentioned Oleson, Kristoff Broberg, Morten Madsen and Johan Carlsson among others.' Okay the improvement has not come quite as quickly as I, or he, would have hoped, but never give up on players with genuine talent as it takes very little for something to click. 

Dylan Frittelli - 0.20 points each-way @ 150-1 (PaddyPower)

Okay, this one is right out of the blue. Given his glittering amateur career and graduation from the University of Texas, many would have expected much more of the Nike/IMG player, especially given his start in pro golf. Wins and placings in decent 'home' South African events made the 23-year-old one to watch and a 33rd in the BMW Open paved the way for a good start to 2013, a season that started with four top-15s including 7th in Kenya (hello again!) before a win at the Karnten event in Austria. Frittelli was tipped for that event on the back of a good showing at the East African venue purely because Marcus Brier had commented on the tightness of the fairways and the small greens and perhaps should have repeated the win a couple of events later. However, form tailed off completely and instead of being comfortably inside the top-15, he slid away outside the top-30. This is an absolute trust issue, and he needs to be forgiven some awful recent results with a 44th the only beacon of hope but he has a game there somewhere and back to a tight track that can reward accurate and attacking iron play, he is worth a small wager given he ranked top-10 for driving accuracy at tricky Madeira last week (although over one round) and  this big hitter will be using short clubs for most of his approaches.

Others to make the shortlist were last years Norwegian victor Jens Fahbring and Andrew McArthur, 17th in Kenya, but both were reluctantly left out at the prices given recent m/c