AEGEAN Airlines Challenge

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Jens Fahbring - 0.50 points ew @ 55-1

Edouard Dubois - 0.50 points ew @ 66-1

Maarten Lafeber - 0.40 points ew @ 80-1

Sebastian Heisele - 0.50 points ew @ 110-1

An excellent quality event with a strong top-half to the betting. Despite this, I couldn't have single figures about Meesawat or Hahn winning however good their recent form is, whilst we are looking at taking around 2-1 combined for the top eight in the betting and Iamn not sure you would do that on many regular Tour events, let alone on a Tour as unpredictable as this. 

In a season of hellish results (ie none) I looked back to previous years to see what had changed and noticed that there were some events where a link could be formed with previous winners, something not used for a while . It can't get much worse so whilst there have only been two previous runnings of this event, a couple of similarities are found.

Both Jake Roos (2014) and Andre Pavan (2013) had strong showings in Kenya, at the Karnten (they played a different course to each other admittedly) and at the Hydro, before winning here, whilst both were on a steady run of form, so take what you will from that - for me, there will be very little chance of a shock result.

Selections at any price could have included the excellent Ryan Fox and compatriot Scott Arnold, both quality players on the Australasian Tour and both doing very well over here, whilst the likes of Robert Coles sprung back to life a couple of weeks ago, was beaten in a play-off last week and has a top-10 here. However, these are all under 40-1 in the market and it is simply too tough to make a stronger case for one over the others. Winner in Denmark, Max Orrin, is the highest-rated on my extremely messy list of asteriks, numbers and stars but again 25-1 doesn't get the heart racing.

First up is Swede Jens Fahbring, a player that gives good memories having tipped him for his maiden victory in 2013. Back them he came into the event having hinted at better for some weeks previous, and I was quite disappointed to miss his win at the D&D in May as his game had a very similar look about it. Still, that win puts him at 6th place in the RTO for the moment and he will be looking to cement or improve that standing on a course on which he was a closing 6th last season. Fahbring makes plenty of birdies as can be seen from six rounds of 69 or less at the Kenyan and Karnten events whilst last weeks 40th in Scotland backs those up nicely having opened with a 68. I felt that he had the look of a 33/35-1 chance this week so whilst reluctant to play anyone at less than 66-1 this week, the proven winner had to be a play.  

Edouard Dubois, currently 24th in the money list and needs some steady top-5 finishes to reach the top-15 on the Race To Oman in order to avoid the pressures of the second half of the season. The early two top-10s in Turkey and Denmark are excellent form even if not in what may be significant events and he should have done much better in Belgium and at the Najati, falling through the pack after a decent first round. Again, it was a steady start last week at the Hydro before missing the cut, so why the Frenchman?

Dubois caught the eye in the most obvious way with that 5th here in 2013, the only time he has played the course, but it was his two wins in 2011 that convinced me about the bet. Wins at the Karnten in Austria (sauntered past Pavan on the run-in) and then at Spey Valley were enough to put him on the radar here. The link may be spurious but at 66-1, I am happy to take the chance that there is enough there at the price.

Maarten Lafeber will never win prizes for the winningmost player and despite being in the top-100 on the European OOM (twice in the top30) for nine consecutive years, he has only ever won once on either Tour, the last way back in 2003. However, the Dutchman has shown some form recently with a 12th in Denmark, 25th in Belgium and last weeks ever-present 6th in Scotland. That wasn't the first decent effort at the Hydro and having finished 13th there last season, he then came onto Hartl where he finished top-30. Given his 13th in Kenya last season, I'll overlook an opening 57th at that venue this year (needed the opener?) and expect him to continue his current good form that should, in fact, be a lot better given his tweets that inform us he is having plenty of chances and just not getting the ball to drop. Although I couldn't take the offer of 40-1 out there, double that price looks far too big an adjustment.

Finally, to the other end of the age spectrum and 26-year-old Sebastian Heisele, another promising player from the mainland. The youngest ever champion at the Emirates Clud Dubai, he took a scholorship to the Leadbetter Academy in 2005 and his career has been progressing ever since. Multi-decorated on the College scene, he has gone on to be only the second ever amateur (behind Martin Kaymer) to win on the EPD Tour, before finishing 8th on the EPD OOM in his first year as a professional. After a relatively poor 2013 when 22nd on the OOM but with a standout 21st around here, he teamed up with a sports psychologist and with instant results, winning twice with eight top-5s and a 2nd place on the OOM, thus enabling the oppertunity to play at Challenge Tour level.

The Dutch-born German resident was 16th at Las Colinas at the 2nd stage of Q-School before warming up for this level with a form run of mc/2/2/4/8 on the ProGolf Tour, and he has taken this hot run and made significant marks with a top-20 at the opener in Kenya and five top-25s in his last six events including Karnten (four rounds of 69 or under), D&D, Swiss Challenge, Belgium (two rounds of 69) and last week at the Hydro (68/69 opening rounds). This is a young player with a clear ambition to succeed and having progressed significantly over the past five years, can be expected to be challenging consistently on the Tour very soon.