Cordon Golf Open

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Having spent two hours writing this and losing the lot, apologies but I am not doing it again! I never learn! Accept my apologies for the brief words below.

Rhys Davies - 1 point each-way @ 33-1 (Sporting/Corals)

Jens Fahrbring - 1 point each-way @ 40-1 (Skybet/VC/Corals)

Borja Virto Astudillo - 1 point each-way @ 60-1 (SportingBet)

Thomas Linard - 0.75 point each-way @ 80-1 (Unibet)

Short course requiring accuracy, ability in wind, able to putt to tough pin positions all equal one player above all (well, if you discount the brilliant Ricardo Gouveia) and Rhys Davies is expected to get back to form this week at the beautiful coastal track. Since leading from wire-to-wire in Spain in July (a few oioiois went up), the Welshman has missed two cuts from four outings but there is some correlation between his form and that of Andrea Pavan, winner here in 2013. Back then, Pavan came into the event seeking his second win of the year but had missed the cut before a 21st in the Rolex Trophy and Davies form has a similar look. The Ryder Cup buggy-driver actually comes here seeking his third win and automatic promotion to the main Tour (2014 winner Hebert made this his second win of three), and missed the cut in two events before a 25th at the Rolex when nothing dropped in the hole. Of course, a further link to that 2013 course form is that Pavan beat Davies into second place and given the latter's ability at venues such as Morocco and Madeira, this location will surely see him bounce back to form.

I cannot argue against anyone putting up the 7-1 combined about the front two. Ryan Fox is a fantastic long-term prospect and the Kiwi is in a rich vein of form, finishing just behind Elvira and Gouveia at the Rolex and then ranking mid-20 at the main Tour event in Czech. His form on the Australian Tours reads well enough and any battle against current R2O leader will be a high-quality affair. The highest-ever rated Portuguese player needs no introduction in this column. I felt he was potentially the best player on the Tour and am relieved to see him justifying it so far this year. One win and ten top-10s thus far, he could hardly be blamed for shooting 22-under and getting beaten at the prestigious Rolex but the missed opportunities down the stretch will hurt a player who relies on very strong and accurate iron play and top-grade putting (there cannot be much in it between himself and Davies in that respect). All tracks seem to come alike but the premium on a quality all-round game and self-belief (very few rags win this when totally out of form) mean that the 16-1 put up by a couple of firms was far too big and was rightly snaffled up. Still, these two are not unbeatable and there are a few that stick out of genuine contenders.

Given that it seems recent winning form is key, the likes of Akesson, Arendell, Jeppeson, Law and Schneider are all just ruled out and the rest are sorted simply by price.

Although tempted by Jens Dantorp, I have always been a fan of Jens Fahrbring and was pretty annoyed at missing his win at the Czech Challenge in June. Very consistent at a lower level, the Swede seems very easy to read - he goes through streaky good runs, has genuine chances to win and he either does or misses cuts soon after. Before his maiden victory in Norway in 2013 he he had put up signs of an imminent breakthrough with a run of form 3/20/mc, whilst his win this year was preceded by 35/40/mc. Again, he had a chance of sorts at Le Vaudreuill to be followed by a m/c and now comes into this off the back of 12/41, having leapt ten places from 22nd to 12th at the Rolex on final day. Fahbring has never missed the cut in France and was 9th in this event last year overcoming an average first round 72 with three subsequent days of 67 and under, and he looks to be on one of those runs where something happens. 40-1 looks a tad too big for a proven winner who needs a small hike in ranking (currently 14th) to guarentee Euro Tour status.

With Benjamin Hebert having won at home last year, there has to be some positivity flowing through the home players and Thomas Linard just shoves aside Victor Riu for the final selection.

Winner at the D&D Czech last season (64 final round to fly through from 5th) before finishing 31st on the rankings, Linard looks to be a 'home' specialist with two runner-up finishes in France this season. The silver medal at the Nejati came courtesy of an excellent best-of the final round 66, whilst he stuck with eventual winner Ryan Fox throughout the last 18-holes at Le Vaudreuil, closing to within one shot. Recent form is good with a  25th in Northern Ireland followed by top-20s at the Gant in Finland (closing 66) and Rolex (opened with a 64) and it will simply be a matter of putting four rounds together. There is a concern that he has two m/c from two outings here but that 80-1 quote more than makes up for it and he could be the one for the 'Allez' come Sunday afternoon.

You can't back them all but at 60-1, Slovakian winner Borja Virto-Astudillo is another who deserves to be on the list. The 24-year-old is in his first full season at this level having had success as an amateur and on the Alps Tour. The promise shown in a handful of starts in 2014 has borne fruit this season with two top-10s preceding that victory, highlighted by holding off a threatening Ricardo Gouveia. The final-hole chip-in birdie shows true grit given he had bogied his 71st hole and lost the outright lead and since then his form reads well - 16/45/16/mc/24/11 - and he looks to be someone to note down if he doesn't quite make the Tour this year (currently on the bubble in 15th).

Is this the way to Astrudillo?