Without the very promising Ricardo Gouveia in the field, there is unlikely to be another of the quality of Broberg but it is still wise to believe that form in and around Scandinavia is going to be key here. Often, the main Tour has found lesser players appear in the top-10 when they return home and with that in mind, the three selections are all of that ilk.

First up, and recommended at 80-1 this morning had to be Jacob Glennemo. The improving Swede has made very steady progress on the Nordic Tour over the last couple of years. Ranking 4th in the Nordea rankings in 2012 gave him his rookie season at this level and, like many, it probably was useful as experience rather than expectation. However, top-25s in India and Belgium read well in a first year whilst making cuts in Norway, Finland and Switzerland are no surprise if the 'location factor' is correct, and he took all that forward when dominating the 2014 Nordic rankings with three wins in 22 outings, combined with ten other top-10s.

Following the winner of the Nordic league can be dangerous - on one hand you can end up with the brilliant Broberg, on the other you can follow the likes of Jesper Kennegard over a cliff and never get a run - but the Swede seems to now be comfortable on this stage if his early season results are any guide. 16th in the opening Kenya Open, he lay T5 after two rounds in Madrid and was top-10 after three rounds of the Turkish Airlines last week. Progress seems to be encouraging and in a weakish field back in an area he clearly loves, he can justify his website claim that he is 'ready to do whatever is necessary' to reach his goal - playing on the European Tour.

When winning his 'player of the year' title, Glennemo only just short-headed Jesper Billing and he is another that may be worth noting for the future. Billing is another making progress at home but after his maiden win in 2013 commented that he somehow couldn't play or win in Denmark and it was a personal aim to get over that mental block (although he strangely mentioned the change of food as a reason). He has now kicked that into touch with his fourth win of 2014 backing up nine further top-10s. That form is 'hidden' from open formlines which admittedly don't show an awful lot! Although he missed both cuts as an invite to the Himmerland and KLM events on the main tour, those rounds read slightly better than those produced in three efforts at this level so far this year, but he openly says that the Robert Karlsson's invite to the KLM made him realise the difference in grades and I feel that if he is ever going to be backed, the return to Denmark may well be the time to do it. At 300-1, the expectation is low but the game is possibly there.

Finally one shrewdie (well someone who was awake anyway)  did manage to stomp all over the 200-1 about Stuart Manley, a ridiculous price about an in-form player with a very impressive record in Scandinavia and 9/15/8 in Denmark. The Welshman will not lack for experience if it gets tricky having flitted between the two main tours for a few years now. Manley made the three-man play-off in Hong Kong in 2013 (won by the legend that is Jimenez, Prom T2) and was T5 after three rounds at the difficult Himmerland event last August. His sole win was at the Finnish Challenge, giving further belief that he thrives here and 80-1 still seems to underestimate his chance relative to plenty of those at half that. 

A well-known odds-maker has christened this tour #minefield and results through the past few months seem to fully justify it, but I am convinced there are clues given the two years previous were very profitable. Other players to make the short-list were fairly obvious - Ritthammer stands out as favourite for me but like JB Hansen (prominent here in 2012), Shiwan Kim (untrustworthy at a shortish price) and Prom Meesawat (huge drop in grade but cannot trust his putting on tricky greens and has an awful record in this part of the world) they cannot be backed at the prices. 

Eranu my friends.